Friday, April 30, 2010

This blog has moved


This blog is now located at http://rwrankings.blogspot.com/.
You will be automatically redirected in 30 seconds, or you may click here.

For feed subscribers, please update your feed subscriptions to
http://rwrankings.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Final 2009 Season Rankings

We have finally run the RWFL calculation on the season that ended over a week ago with Alabama's victory over Texas. Of course, that left us with two undefeated FBS teams: Alabama and Boise State. Unfortunately, the nature of the BCS is that we'll never see the last game necessary to eliminate one of these teams from the ranks of the undefeated.

The RWFL-based bowl predictions were magnificently bad this year. I haven't analyzed anything in depth in the discrepancy between what was predicted and what happened. Of course, there are many reasons why teams may do better or worse in bowl games than they "should" in whatever sense one takes that word here. However, particularly per my interest in communities in networks, I'm always keen to see if there are conference-based patterns in the mispredictions. Last year, I recall that the bowl games appeared to indicate that the RWFL had left the Big 12 under-ranked. This year, that conference may have been the Big Ten, with many RWFL predictions of Big 10 bowl defeats that went awry. But that is admittedly just a first impression.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Thursday January 7th 2010:
1. Alabama (14-0) [1.8099]
2. Florida (13-1) [1.3544]
3. Boise St (14-0) [1.0583]
4. Cincinnati (12-1) [1.0386]
5. Texas (13-1) [1.0197]
6. Ohio State (11-2) [0.9994]
7. TCU (12-1) [0.9500]
8. Iowa (11-2) [0.9438]
9. Georgia Tech (11-3) [0.8511]
10. Oregon (10-3) [0.8504]
11. Virginia Tech (10-3) [0.8148]
12. Penn State (11-2) [0.7775]
13. LSU (9-4) [0.7300]
14. Brigham Young (11-2) [0.7263]
15. Pittsburgh (10-3) [0.7029]
16. Southern Cal (9-4) [0.6760]
17. Miami FL (9-4) [0.6628]
18. Wisconsin (10-3) [0.6541]
19. Mississippi (9-4) [0.6376]
20. Georgia (8-5) [0.6211]
21. West Virginia (9-4) [0.6155]
22. Arkansas (8-5) [0.6150]
23. Auburn (8-5) [0.6058]
24. Clemson (9-5) [0.5853]
25. Utah (10-3) [0.5713]
26. Arizona (8-5) [0.5699]
27. North Carolina (8-5) [0.5604]
28. Oklahoma St (9-4) [0.5513]
29. Nebraska (10-4) [0.5486]
30. Stanford (8-5) [0.5434]
31. South Carolina (7-6) [0.5359]
32. Florida St (7-6) [0.5327]
33. Oregon St (8-5) [0.5163]
34. Tennessee (7-6) [0.5073]
35. California (8-5) [0.4993]
36. Texas Tech (9-4) [0.4913]
37. Central Michigan (12-2) [0.4882]
38. Navy (10-4) [0.4847]
39. Connecticut (8-5) [0.4834]
40. Oklahoma (8-5) [0.4809]
41. Kentucky (7-6) [0.4682]
42. Northwestern (8-5) [0.4641]
43. Boston College (8-5) [0.4539]
44. Houston (10-4) [0.4534]
45. Rutgers (9-4) [0.4530]
46. South Florida (8-5) [0.4430]
47. Mississippi St (5-7) [0.4403]
48. East Carolina (9-5) [0.4392]
49. Missouri (8-5) [0.4136]
50. UCLA (7-6) [0.4120]
51. Washington (5-7) [0.3980]
52. Troy (9-4) [0.3955]
53. Fresno St (8-5) [0.3932]
54. Notre Dame (6-6) [0.3923]
55. Minnesota (6-7) [0.3874]
56. Air Force (8-5) [0.3815]
57. Nevada (8-5) [0.3750]
58. Middle Tennessee St (10-3) [0.3740]
59. SMU (8-5) [0.3659]
60. Central Florida (8-5) [0.3550]
61. Temple (9-4) [0.3482]
62. Wyoming (7-6) [0.3470]
63. Purdue (5-7) [0.3419]
64. Idaho (8-5) [0.3362]
65. Michigan St (6-7) [0.3358]
66. Iowa St (7-6) [0.3240]
67. Wake Forest (5-7) [0.3215]
68. Texas A&M (6-7) [0.3186]
69. Marshall (7-6) [0.3166]
70. North Carolina St (5-7) [0.3096]
71. Ohio U. (9-5) [0.2929]
72. Syracuse (4-8) [0.2839]
73. Kansas St (6-6) [0.2823]
74. Bowling Green (7-6) [0.2727]
75. Michigan (5-7) [0.2610]
76. Hawai`i (6-7) [0.2602]
77. Virginia (3-9) [0.2576]
78. Southern Miss (7-6) [0.2571]
79. Kansas (5-7) [0.2565]
80. UNLV (5-7) [0.2539]
81. Duke (5-7) [0.2534]
82. Arizona St (4-8) [0.2520]
83. Baylor (4-8) [0.2359]
84. Louisville (4-8) [0.2348]
85. Illinois (3-9) [0.2261]
86. Indiana (4-8) [0.2197]
87. Utah St (4-8) [0.2140]
88. Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) [0.2116]
89. Colorado (3-9) [0.2102]
90. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6) [0.2080]
91. Louisiana Tech (4-8) [0.2078]
92. Northern Illinois (7-6) [0.2076]
93. Alabama-Birmingham (5-7) [0.2075]
94. San Diego St (4-8) [0.1991]
95. Colorado St (3-9) [0.1891]
96. Tulsa (5-7) [0.1885]
97. Vanderbilt (2-10) [0.1876]
98. UTEP (4-8) [0.1847]
99. Maryland (2-10) [0.1810]
100. Toledo (5-7) [0.1802]
101. Florida Int'l (3-9) [0.1792]
102. Florida Atlantic (5-7) [0.1776]
103. Buffalo (5-7) [0.1703]
104. Washington St (1-11) [0.1631]
105. New Mexico St (3-10) [0.1517]
106. Tulane (3-9) [0.1502]
107. San Jose St (2-10) [0.1459]
108. Kent St (5-7) [0.1429]
109. Army (5-7) [0.1389]
110. Western Michigan (5-7) [0.1305]
111. Arkansas St (4-8) [0.1270]
112. Rice (2-10) [0.1188]
113. New Mexico (1-11) [0.1147]
114. Memphis (2-10) [0.1090]
115. Miami OH (1-11) [0.1041]
116. Akron (3-9) [0.1037]
117. North Texas (2-10) [0.0886]
118. Ball St (2-10) [0.0652]
119. Eastern Michigan (0-12) [0.0021]
120. Western Kentucky (0-12) [0.0003]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.7094
BigEast 0.5319
Big10 0.5101
Pac10 0.4880
ACC 0.4820
Big12 0.4277
MWC 0.4148
WAC 0.3492
FBSInd 0.3386
CUSA 0.2622
SunBelt 0.1957
MAC 0.1930
Non-FBS -0.0830

Saturday, December 26, 2009

From the self-deprecation department

This year was the first year that I followed our web traffic at any level of detail. The normal pattern has been that traffic spikes on Sundays during the regular season. But that traffic has dropped off dramatically following the big spike on BCS Selection Sunday. Right now, maybe that looks like a positive development (smile) seeing how poorly we're doing so far in our now annual use of the RWFL rankings to try to pick the bowl games. This year's RWFL-based selections have correctly picked 1 of the 6 bowl games so far this season, putting us currently at the 9.9th percentile in ESPN's College Bowl Mania. That's right, more than 90% of entries are currently performing better than our picks. Impressive! But there are a lot of games left to play, so we'll see how it shakes out in the long run. After all, our entry can't drop much lower.

Labels: ,

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Last Minute Bowl Game Preparations

The first bowl games are only hours away, so it's time to get ready! No, I don't mean chili and guacamole (though that sounds good). I mean our third annual attempt to use the rankings to predict the bowl games. We'll once again be playing over at ESPN's College Bowl Mania (not endorsing it, it's just where I'm signed up), which requires predictions of outcomes and rank-ordering of confidence in those predictions. The 2007 random walker bowl predictions turned out pretty well, placing above the 75th percentile of all entries, which I believe is good for a fully automated system. The 2008 bowl predictions, however, really missed the mark. But that doesn't stop us from coming back to try again.

The big caveats up front are that we definitely do not recommend these rankings for anything beyond entertainment. The underlying rankings are not intended to be best in any sense, except that they are relatively simple to explain. And the methodology used to assign predictive probabilities here is fundamentally flawed. The general principle we use is that we assign a probability to a victory by the higher-ranked team such that the addition of a mythical fractional-outcome game split according to those probabilities does not change the existing rankings. However, this simple principle is fabulously erroneous for many reasons, not the least of which is that it can algebraically return a greater-than-100% chance of victory. You might think a mathematician would bother to fix such a problem, but there are so many other flaws in trying to use these rankings to predict upcoming games that it's unclear whether further detailed work would yield anything useful.

Like past years, we used the full-component RWFL predictions at p=0.75 (see other parts of this site for those details). Each game selection is specified by predicting the higher-ranked team will beat the lower-ranked team. The games are presented in order of confidence (highest to lowest), determined by the mean of the stated probability spread (obtained individually by the first-place votes and the last-place votes). I'm happy to discuss such details further, though I warn again that it is a relatively crude model. And since I'm assuming visitors just want the results, let's get to the predictions.

----
International
South Florida (7-5) over Northern Illinois (7-5)
70-82%
----
AdvoCare V100 Independence
Georgia (7-5) over Texas A&M (6-6)
67-79%
----
Chick-fil-A
Virginia Tech (9-3) over Tennessee (7-5)
69-76%
----
Emerald
Southern Cal (8-4) over Boston College (8-4)
65-70%
----
Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi
Oregon (10-2) over Ohio State (10-2)
61-71%
----
Brut Sun
Stanford (8-4) over Oklahoma (7-5)
63-69%
----
Insight
Minnesota (6-6) over Iowa St (6-6)
65-67%
----
Konica Minolta Gator
West Virginia (9-3) over Florida St (6-6)
65-67%
----
New Mexico
Fresno St (8-4) over Wyoming (6-6)
65-66%
----
Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona (8-4) over Nebraska (9-4)
65-66%
----
EagleBank
UCLA (6-6) over Temple (9-3)
56-70%
----
Outback
Auburn (7-5) over Northwestern (8-4)
61-62%
----
Papajohns.com
South Carolina (7-5) over Connecticut (7-5)
61-62%
----
Valero Alamo
Texas Tech (8-4) over Michigan St (6-6)
57-66%
----
Champs Sports
Miami FL (9-3) over Wisconsin (9-3)
56-67%
----
Sheraton Hawaii
Nevada (8-4) over SMU (7-5)
56-65%
----
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
Houston (10-3) over Air Force (7-5)
47-75%
----
FedEx Orange
Georgia Tech (11-2) over Iowa (10-2)
56-61%
----
Citi BCS National Championship Game
Alabama (13-0) over Texas (13-0)
47-70%
----
Texas
Missouri (8-4) over Navy (8-4)
54-60%
----
Gaylord Hotels Music City
Clemson (8-5) over Kentucky (7-5)
57-58%
----
St. Petersburg
Central Florida (8-4) over Rutgers (8-4)
50-65%
----
R+L Carriers New Orleans
Middle Tennessee St (9-3) over Southern Miss (7-5)
56-57%
----
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia
California (8-4) over Utah (9-3)
53-59%
----
AT&T Cotton
Oklahoma St (9-3) over Mississippi (8-4)
52-59%
----
Allstate Sugar
Florida (12-1) over Cincinnati (12-0)
52-59%
----
Capital One
LSU (9-3) over Penn State (10-2)
50-60%
----
Tostitos Fiesta
TCU (12-0) over Boise St (13-0)
53-55%
----
Roady's Humanitarian
Idaho (7-5) over Bowling Green (7-5)
50-58%
----
GMAC
Central Michigan (11-2) over Troy (9-3)
54-54%
----
Little Caesars
Ohio U. (9-4) over Marshall (6-6)
52-53%
----
AutoZone Liberty
Arkansas (7-5) over East Carolina (9-4)
44-55%
----
MAACO Las Vegas
Oregon St (8-4) over Brigham Young (10-2)
49-50%
----
Meineke Car Care
North Carolina (8-4) over Pittsburgh (9-3)
39-51%
----

Note, in particular, the toss-up nature in the last picks above. Meanwhile, even some of the more confident calls include probability spreads that dip below 50%, including the call for the BCS National Championship Game.

By the way, we get a LOT more visitors than comments on this site. Feel free to express your opinion about the accuracy (or better yet, the stupidity) of these predictions!

Labels:

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Rankings through December 5th

Every time you changed the channel yesterday, there was another wild game on. Alabama rolled Florida. Texas survived last-second confusion and won on a last-second FG. Cincy came back from 21 down and won by the difference of Pitt's botched extra point attempt following a perhaps too-early TD. GT won a back-and-forth match with Clemson. And Fresno State beat Illinois on a stretch into the endzone in the last seconds, followed by a fluke tip drill two-point conversion. Okay, so that last one has zero implication for the BCS bowls, and most of us probably only saw it on SportsCenter; but it was crazy.

Cincy and TCU fans are probably steaming this morning that Texas got that second back. And Texas will probably lose a few votes in the BCS Standings, but the conventional wisdom seems to be that their lead over TCU last week was so large that it won't matter: Texas will play Alabama for the championship.

TCU will get the non-AQ group automatic qualification. The three remaining BCS at-large bids are up to the bowls themselves, but it seems certain that Florida will get one, and it seems likely that Boise State and either Iowa or Penn State will get the other. That is, unless a bowl game chooses to go to a three-loss team, it's just a matter of which team goes where; Brad Edwards at ESPN concisely breaks the process down and makes predictions.

Finally, on to our own rankings. Note the figure below the rank ordering of the 120 teams, because it says something interesting this week. Specifically, it plots the order of the top teams under varying the single "p value" bias parameter in our ranking system, which is a highly imperfect proxy for exploring other ranking systems that work under the same limiting assumptions (notably no margin of victory and no information about dates of games). While Alabama remains the undisputed #1 as the bias varies between its allowed values, Cincy, Florida, and Texas each make appearances at #2.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday December 5th:
1. Alabama (13-0) [1.6882]
2. Florida (12-1) [1.2422]
3. Cincinnati (12-0) [1.2000]
4. Texas (13-0) [1.1248]
5. TCU (12-0) [1.0198]
6. Oregon (10-2) [1.0023]
7. Georgia Tech (11-2) [0.9651]
8. Boise St (13-0) [0.9495]
9. Virginia Tech (9-3) [0.8073]
10. Ohio State (10-2) [0.7910]
11. LSU (9-3) [0.7865]
12. Iowa (10-2) [0.7746]
13. Miami FL (9-3) [0.7666]
14. West Virginia (9-3) [0.6841]
15. Arizona (8-4) [0.6710]
16. Southern Cal (8-4) [0.6678]
17. Stanford (8-4) [0.6546]
18. North Carolina (8-4) [0.6454]
19. Penn State (10-2) [0.6447]
20. Pittsburgh (9-3) [0.6344]
21. Oregon St (8-4) [0.6244]
22. Brigham Young (10-2) [0.6235]
23. Georgia (7-5) [0.6216]
24. Oklahoma St (9-3) [0.6175]
25. California (8-4) [0.6021]
26. Mississippi (8-4) [0.5896]
27. South Carolina (7-5) [0.5764]
28. Clemson (8-5) [0.5750]
29. Arkansas (7-5) [0.5734]
30. Auburn (7-5) [0.5696]
31. Tennessee (7-5) [0.5425]
32. Wisconsin (9-3) [0.5406]
33. Houston (10-3) [0.5280]
34. East Carolina (9-4) [0.5162]
35. Kentucky (7-5) [0.4978]
36. Utah (9-3) [0.4977]
37. Nebraska (9-4) [0.4903]
38. Boston College (8-4) [0.4878]
39. Florida St (6-6) [0.4825]
40. Texas Tech (8-4) [0.4599]
41. Missouri (8-4) [0.4591]
42. Central Michigan (11-2) [0.4558]
43. Northwestern (8-4) [0.4454]
44. Connecticut (7-5) [0.4429]
45. Oklahoma (7-5) [0.4380]
46. Washington (5-7) [0.4369]
47. South Florida (7-5) [0.4368]
48. Mississippi St (5-7) [0.4327]
49. Troy (9-3) [0.4211]
50. Central Florida (8-4) [0.4205]
51. Fresno St (8-4) [0.4197]
52. UCLA (6-6) [0.4193]
53. Rutgers (8-4) [0.4184]
54. Navy (8-4) [0.4175]
55. Nevada (8-4) [0.4011]
56. Notre Dame (6-6) [0.3973]
57. Minnesota (6-6) [0.3862]
58. Temple (9-3) [0.3607]
59. SMU (7-5) [0.3477]
60. Middle Tennessee St (9-3) [0.3437]
61. Wake Forest (5-7) [0.3422]
62. Michigan St (6-6) [0.3296]
63. Texas A&M (6-6) [0.3279]
64. Ohio U. (9-4) [0.3254]
65. Air Force (7-5) [0.3141]
66. North Carolina St (5-7) [0.3131]
67. Purdue (5-7) [0.3102]
68. Marshall (6-6) [0.3034]
69. Wyoming (6-6) [0.3017]
70. Idaho (7-5) [0.3011]
71. Southern Miss (7-5) [0.2985]
72. Bowling Green (7-5) [0.2968]
73. Arizona St (4-8) [0.2795]
74. Iowa St (6-6) [0.2771]
75. Virginia (3-9) [0.2765]
76. Syracuse (4-8) [0.2763]
77. Kansas St (6-6) [0.2736]
78. Duke (5-7) [0.2680]
79. Kansas (5-7) [0.2590]
80. UNLV (5-7) [0.2453]
81. Hawai`i (6-7) [0.2430]
82. Baylor (4-8) [0.2417]
83. Louisville (4-8) [0.2379]
84. Michigan (5-7) [0.2319]
85. Alabama-Birmingham (5-7) [0.2182]
86. Illinois (3-9) [0.2168]
87. Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) [0.2137]
88. Colorado (3-9) [0.2120]
89. Northern Illinois (7-5) [0.2065]
90. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6) [0.2039]
91. Utah St (4-8) [0.1998]
92. Louisiana Tech (4-8) [0.1984]
93. UTEP (4-8) [0.1947]
94. Indiana (4-8) [0.1935]
95. Vanderbilt (2-10) [0.1921]
96. Tulsa (5-7) [0.1912]
97. San Diego St (4-8) [0.1860]
98. Washington St (1-11) [0.1816]
99. Colorado St (3-9) [0.1813]
100. Maryland (2-10) [0.1808]
101. Buffalo (5-7) [0.1735]
102. Florida Atlantic (5-7) [0.1715]
103. Toledo (5-7) [0.1697]
104. Florida Int'l (3-9) [0.1677]
105. Tulane (3-9) [0.1555]
106. Kent St (5-7) [0.1471]
107. San Jose St (2-10) [0.1420]
108. New Mexico St (3-10) [0.1388]
109. Army (5-6) [0.1341]
110. Rice (2-10) [0.1262]
111. Western Michigan (5-7) [0.1256]
112. Memphis (2-10) [0.1172]
113. Arkansas St (4-8) [0.1162]
114. Miami OH (1-11) [0.1088]
115. New Mexico (1-11) [0.1048]
116. Akron (3-9) [0.1004]
117. North Texas (2-10) [0.0838]
118. Ball St (2-10) [0.0634]
119. Eastern Michigan (0-12) [-0.0003]
120. Western Kentucky (0-12) [-0.0032]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.6927
Pac10 0.5540
BigEast 0.5414
ACC 0.5092
Big10 0.4422
Big12 0.4317
MWC 0.3860
WAC 0.3326
FBSInd 0.3163
CUSA 0.2848
MAC 0.1949
SunBelt 0.1909
Non-FBS -0.0829

Labels:

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Rankings through November 28th

With only one week left before the bowl bids, the teams at the very top just keep on winning. Meanwhile, losses among BCS bid hopefuls Oklahoma State and Pitt have helped to slightly clarify the at-large possibilities.

First, the obvious: the winner of the SEC Championship game next weekend between Florida and Alabama will appear in the National Championship game. The loser will get one of the three BCS at-large bids. Texas will be the other half of the National Championship game if they beat Nebraska for the Big 12 Championship. TCU will get a non-AQ-group automatic bid to a BCS bowl, leaving only two at-large bids left up for grabs.

If Texas loses next weekend, they will certainly get an at-large bid, and we're going to hear lots of controversy about who should play in the National Championship game: Texas, TCU, Cincinnati (if they beat Pitt in the de facto Big East title game), or Boise State (if they win their final regular season game).

Will Boise State get an at-large bid? Let's break it down very quickly by assuming for the present argument that no three-loss team is going to get a BCS bowl bid this year (though that assumption might not be safe). This way, we take Oregon, GT, and Pitt out of at-large contention: if they win, they win the automatic bids from their respective conferences. The remaining variables then are Texas, Cincinnati, the Big Ten at-large hopefuls, and of course, Boise State has to win their regular season finale (otherwise this discussion is moot).

Assuming Boise State wins next weekend and no three-loss team gets an at-large bid, the remaining scenarios are:

If Texas and Cincy both lose next weekend, they very likely take the two remaining at-large bids, though Boise State, Iowa & Penn State fans might not be too pleased with the Cincinnati selection. More importantly, the bowl games (who ultimately make the selections) might decide a different selection is more lucrative. In any case, this scenario is bad for Boise State.

If Cincy wins and Texas loses, Texas certainly takes an at-large bid, leaving one left to go to either Boise State, Iowa, or Penn State. If the split goes the other way (Texas wins and Cincy loses), then perhaps the Cincy selection isn't quite so certain, leaving two at-large bids to split among these teams. Does Boise State get one under this scenario? I have no idea. Note this might also end up depending on the other conference championship games, in that it might be hard to rationalize an Iowa/PennSt selection over a Boise State squad ranked, say, five spots higher in the BCS Standings; but if other teams fall, the rank-order gap might narrow significantly.

Finally, the good news for Boise State: if Texas and Cincy both win next weekend, they take their respective conferences' automatic bids, leaving two at-large bids remaining. In this scenario, an undefeated Boise State is all but certain to grab a BCS bid, since the Big Ten can only take one at-large bid (to either Iowa or Penn State). The only way to deny Boise State in this scenario is to give an at-large bid to a three-loss team. So the Broncos will be cheering for the Longhorns and Bearcats, and if all three win, it looks like we'll see two non-AQ group schools in the BCS games for the first time.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday November 28th:
1. Alabama (12-0) [1.4900]
2. Florida (12-0) [1.4155]
3. Cincinnati (11-0) [1.1452]
4. Texas (12-0) [1.0918]
5. TCU (12-0) [1.0246]
6. Boise St (12-0) [0.9648]
7. Oregon (9-2) [0.9501]
8. Georgia Tech (10-2) [0.9121]
9. Ohio State (10-2) [0.7874]
10. Virginia Tech (9-3) [0.7827]
11. LSU (9-3) [0.7669]
12. Miami FL (9-3) [0.7656]
13. Southern Cal (8-3) [0.7645]
14. Iowa (10-2) [0.7552]
15. Pittsburgh (9-2) [0.6931]
16. Oregon St (8-3) [0.6788]
17. California (8-3) [0.6785]
18. Stanford (8-4) [0.6565]
19. Penn State (10-2) [0.6446]
20. West Virginia (8-3) [0.6358]
21. Brigham Young (10-2) [0.6218]
22. North Carolina (8-4) [0.6187]
23. Oklahoma St (9-3) [0.6181]
24. Georgia (7-5) [0.6170]
25. Clemson (8-4) [0.6148]
26. Houston (10-2) [0.5983]
27. Arizona (7-4) [0.5967]
28. South Carolina (7-5) [0.5749]
29. Mississippi (8-4) [0.5728]
30. Arkansas (7-5) [0.5678]
31. Auburn (7-5) [0.5456]
32. Tennessee (7-5) [0.5430]
33. Wisconsin (8-3) [0.5170]
34. Nebraska (9-3) [0.5057]
35. Utah (9-3) [0.4952]
36. Kentucky (7-5) [0.4924]
37. Florida St (6-6) [0.4890]
38. South Florida (7-4) [0.4845]
39. Boston College (8-4) [0.4844]
40. Texas Tech (8-4) [0.4635]
41. Rutgers (8-3) [0.4605]
42. Missouri (8-4) [0.4569]
43. East Carolina (8-4) [0.4418]
44. Northwestern (8-4) [0.4401]
45. Oklahoma (7-5) [0.4367]
46. Troy (9-3) [0.4295]
47. Mississippi St (5-7) [0.4284]
48. Central Florida (8-4) [0.4237]
49. Navy (8-4) [0.4199]
50. UCLA (6-6) [0.4165]
51. Central Michigan (10-2) [0.4135]
52. Connecticut (6-5) [0.4011]
53. Fresno St (7-4) [0.3965]
54. Nevada (8-4) [0.3957]
55. Notre Dame (6-6) [0.3933]
56. Minnesota (6-6) [0.3872]
57. Washington (4-7) [0.3808]
58. Temple (9-3) [0.3637]
59. Ohio U. (9-3) [0.3557]
60. Middle Tennessee St (9-3) [0.3467]
61. SMU (7-5) [0.3434]
62. Wake Forest (5-7) [0.3420]
63. Texas A&M (6-6) [0.3256]
64. Michigan St (6-6) [0.3248]
65. North Carolina St (5-7) [0.3189]
66. Air Force (7-5) [0.3135]
67. Purdue (5-7) [0.3067]
68. Marshall (6-6) [0.3017]
69. Bowling Green (7-5) [0.2987]
70. Southern Miss (7-5) [0.2975]
71. Wyoming (6-6) [0.2968]
72. Idaho (7-5) [0.2954]
73. Syracuse (4-8) [0.2801]
74. Iowa St (6-6) [0.2788]
75. Arizona St (4-8) [0.2766]
76. Kansas St (6-6) [0.2754]
77. Virginia (3-9) [0.2729]
78. Duke (5-7) [0.2676]
79. Kansas (5-7) [0.2584]
80. Hawai`i (6-6) [0.2518]
81. UNLV (5-7) [0.2469]
82. Baylor (4-8) [0.2397]
83. Louisville (4-8) [0.2378]
84. Michigan (5-7) [0.2292]
85. Illinois (3-8) [0.2262]
86. Alabama-Birmingham (5-7) [0.2129]
87. Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) [0.2109]
88. Colorado (3-9) [0.2088]
89. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6) [0.2051]
90. Northern Illinois (7-5) [0.2041]
91. UTEP (4-8) [0.1987]
92. Utah St (4-8) [0.1975]
93. Vanderbilt (2-10) [0.1936]
94. Indiana (4-8) [0.1921]
95. Tulsa (5-7) [0.1916]
96. Maryland (2-10) [0.1891]
97. Florida Int'l (3-8) [0.1875]
98. San Diego St (4-8) [0.1832]
99. Washington St (1-11) [0.1824]
100. Louisiana Tech (3-8) [0.1811]
101. Colorado St (3-9) [0.1793]
102. Buffalo (5-7) [0.1768]
103. Toledo (5-7) [0.1691]
104. San Jose St (2-9) [0.1567]
105. Tulane (3-9) [0.1565]
106. Florida Atlantic (4-7) [0.1515]
107. Kent St (5-7) [0.1509]
108. Army (5-6) [0.1361]
109. Rice (2-10) [0.1264]
110. Western Michigan (5-7) [0.1248]
111. New Mexico St (3-9) [0.1220]
112. Memphis (2-10) [0.1167]
113. Arkansas St (3-8) [0.1092]
114. Miami OH (1-11) [0.1084]
115. New Mexico (1-11) [0.1035]
116. Akron (3-9) [0.1004]
117. North Texas (2-10) [0.0790]
118. Ball St (2-10) [0.0631]
119. Western Kentucky (0-11) [0.0062]
120. Eastern Michigan (0-12) [-0.0022]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.6840
Pac10 0.5581
BigEast 0.5423
ACC 0.5048
Big10 0.4373
Big12 0.4300
MWC 0.3850
WAC 0.3290
FBSInd 0.3164
CUSA 0.2841
MAC 0.1944
SunBelt 0.1917
Non-FBS -0.0825

Labels: ,

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Rankings through November 21st

Another week of wins at the top of last week's BCS Standings. The most prominent loss near the top of the Standings was LSU's confused clock management thriller at Ole Miss. Of course, other losses by Notre Dame, Kansas and Michigan make big news because coaching jobs might be on the line, but we're now most interested in the BCS Bowl bids here.

All signs continue to point to a probable Alabama/Florida v. Texas National Championship Game, though of course that might depend on teams continuing to win. That said, it's becoming conceivable that Texas could lose a game down the stretch and still appear in the National Championship (the earliest compelling argument I heard for this was on Slate's Hang Up and Listen podcast). So I continue to be most interested right now in whether Boise State will get a BCS at-large bid this year.

Without repeating yesterday's post, the LSU loss possibly hurts Boise State a little, simply because LSU wasn't going to get a BCS Bowl bid anyway (assuming Florida and Alabama get them, with only two allowed per conference). So LSU will fall from their current BCS#8 spot, and someone else who might be in the running for an at-large bid will be able to make a stronger case. Maybe I'm splitting hairs here worrying on Boise State's behalf about one loss by LSU. But there could be a lot of teams making a respectable case for an at-large bid if they don't win their conference championships: Texas plays Nebraska, GT faces Clemson, Cincy gets Pitt, and Oregon hosts Oregon State in the now de facto Pac-10 championship game. Again, we take it as a given that the loser of Florida/Alabama will get an at-large bid, and we assume that TCU will get the non-AQ-group automatic berth if they beat New Mexico next week. That leaves two at-large bids remaining, some of which could disappear to losers of the conference championship games, or even to the Big Ten.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday November 21st:
1. Alabama (11-0) [1.3873]
2. Florida (11-0) [1.2604]
3. Cincinnati (10-0) [1.2062]
4. Georgia Tech (10-1) [1.1521]
5. TCU (11-0) [1.1169]
6. Texas (11-0) [1.0729]
7. Oregon (9-2) [0.9538]
8. Boise St (11-0) [0.9062]
9. Pittsburgh (9-1) [0.8839]
10. Ohio State (10-2) [0.8350]
11. Virginia Tech (8-3) [0.7996]
12. Miami FL (8-3) [0.7874]
13. Iowa (10-2) [0.7809]
14. North Carolina (8-3) [0.7454]
15. Southern Cal (7-3) [0.7449]
16. Clemson (8-3) [0.7240]
17. Penn State (10-2) [0.6923]
18. California (8-3) [0.6850]
19. Oklahoma St (9-2) [0.6742]
20. Oregon St (8-3) [0.6731]
21. LSU (8-3) [0.6490]
22. Stanford (7-4) [0.6206]
23. Mississippi (8-3) [0.6025]
24. Houston (9-2) [0.5948]
25. Arizona (6-4) [0.5763]
26. Arkansas (7-4) [0.5670]
27. West Virginia (7-3) [0.5627]
28. Utah (9-2) [0.5575]
29. South Florida (7-3) [0.5547]
30. Brigham Young (9-2) [0.5481]
31. Wisconsin (8-3) [0.5401]
32. Florida St (6-5) [0.5242]
33. Auburn (7-4) [0.5063]
34. Navy (8-3) [0.5059]
35. Kentucky (7-4) [0.5029]
36. Boston College (7-4) [0.4981]
37. South Carolina (6-5) [0.4919]
38. Georgia (6-5) [0.4811]
39. Nebraska (8-3) [0.4753]
40. Rutgers (7-3) [0.4727]
41. Northwestern (8-4) [0.4598]
42. Temple (9-2) [0.4448]
43. Tennessee (6-5) [0.4446]
44. Notre Dame (6-5) [0.4387]
45. Missouri (7-4) [0.4333]
46. UCLA (6-5) [0.4262]
47. Texas Tech (7-4) [0.4256]
48. East Carolina (7-4) [0.4150]
49. Central Florida (7-4) [0.4123]
50. Minnesota (6-6) [0.4084]
51. Central Michigan (9-2) [0.4007]
52. Troy (8-3) [0.3985]
53. Connecticut (5-5) [0.3958]
54. Nevada (8-3) [0.3955]
55. Fresno St (7-4) [0.3857]
56. Washington (3-7) [0.3645]
57. Mississippi St (4-7) [0.3637]
58. Oklahoma (6-5) [0.3586]
59. Michigan St (6-6) [0.3419]
60. Wake Forest (4-7) [0.3372]
61. Southern Miss (7-4) [0.3362]
62. Marshall (6-5) [0.3341]
63. Idaho (7-4) [0.3291]
64. SMU (6-5) [0.3276]
65. Middle Tennessee St (8-3) [0.3266]
66. Purdue (5-7) [0.3241]
67. Air Force (7-5) [0.3215]
68. Syracuse (4-7) [0.3196]
69. Virginia (3-8) [0.3158]
70. Duke (5-6) [0.3154]
71. Texas A&M (6-5) [0.3116]
72. Ohio U. (8-3) [0.3014]
73. North Carolina St (4-7) [0.2844]
74. Wyoming (5-6) [0.2841]
75. Iowa St (6-6) [0.2825]
76. Arizona St (4-7) [0.2815]
77. Kansas (5-6) [0.2761]
78. Bowling Green (6-5) [0.2736]
79. Louisville (4-7) [0.2728]
80. Kansas St (6-6) [0.2699]
81. Baylor (4-7) [0.2485]
82. Michigan (5-7) [0.2481]
83. Northern Illinois (7-4) [0.2280]
84. UNLV (4-7) [0.2276]
85. Alabama-Birmingham (5-6) [0.2244]
86. Louisiana-Monroe (6-5) [0.2230]
87. Illinois (3-7) [0.2219]
88. Colorado (3-8) [0.2155]
89. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5) [0.2121]
90. Maryland (2-9) [0.2100]
91. San Diego St (4-7) [0.2051]
92. Indiana (4-8) [0.2047]
93. Colorado St (3-8) [0.1993]
94. Hawai`i (5-6) [0.1967]
95. Toledo (5-6) [0.1940]
96. Washington St (1-10) [0.1870]
97. Vanderbilt (2-10) [0.1809]
98. Florida Int'l (3-8) [0.1781]
99. Kent St (5-6) [0.1717]
100. Louisiana Tech (3-8) [0.1702]
101. Tulsa (4-7) [0.1675]
102. Buffalo (4-7) [0.1650]
103. UTEP (3-8) [0.1637]
104. Tulane (3-8) [0.1588]
105. Utah St (3-8) [0.1586]
106. Western Michigan (5-6) [0.1557]
107. Army (5-6) [0.1415]
108. Florida Atlantic (3-7) [0.1384]
109. San Jose St (1-9) [0.1352]
110. New Mexico St (3-8) [0.1303]
111. Memphis (2-9) [0.1249]
112. Rice (2-9) [0.1204]
113. Miami OH (1-11) [0.1152]
114. Akron (2-9) [0.0997]
115. Arkansas St (2-8) [0.0908]
116. North Texas (2-9) [0.0851]
117. New Mexico (1-10) [0.0814]
118. Ball St (1-10) [0.0415]
119. Western Kentucky (0-10) [0.0134]
120. Eastern Michigan (0-11) [0.0131]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.6198
BigEast 0.5836
ACC 0.5578
Pac10 0.5513
Big10 0.4597
Big12 0.4203
MWC 0.3935
FBSInd 0.3620
WAC 0.3119
CUSA 0.2816
MAC 0.2003
SunBelt 0.1851
Non-FBS -0.0831

Labels: ,