Monkeys Shock the BCS!

We use the Random Walkers to rank all 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, plus the extra made-up "team" representing their collective Football Championship Subdivision opponents. The "votes" in the Random Walker (RW) system are all essentially first-place votes, teams with more votes ranked more highly. The Random Walker with First & Last (RWFL) system is a combination of "first-place" and "last-place" votes. We have determined that our bias parameter p=0.75 has nice properties for RWFL (near the minimum crossing probability when compared against round-robin standings), so we use p=0.75 for both RW and RWFL and are happy that this is coincidentally the same primary value we have used in the past for the RW rankings.

2007 Random Walker Rankings (p=0.75)
Games Through Saturday December 1st
	RW		RWFL
Rank	Team (Wins-Losses)	% of Total Votes	Team (Wins-Losses)	%(First)-%(Last)
1	LSU (11-2)	2.0693	LSU (11-2)	1.7846
2	Virginia Tech (11-2)	1.8742	Virginia Tech (11-2)	1.5748
3	Georgia (10-2)	1.8414	Georgia (10-2)	1.5516
4	Oklahoma (11-2)	1.8215	Missouri (11-2)	1.4813
5	Missouri (11-2)	1.8050	Arizona St (10-2)	1.4488
6	Southern Cal (10-2)	1.7972	Southern Cal (10-2)	1.4375
7	Arizona St (10-2)	1.7367	Oklahoma (11-2)	1.4367
8	Ohio State (11-1)	1.6861	West Virginia (10-2)	1.3391
9	West Virginia (10-2)	1.6794	Ohio State (11-1)	1.3249
10	Florida (9-3)	1.5953	Florida (9-3)	1.3143
11	Kansas (11-1)	1.5612	Kansas (11-1)	1.2021
12	Boston College (10-3)	1.5394	Boston College (10-3)	1.1856
13	Hawai`i (12-0)	1.4610	South Florida (9-3)	1.0671
14	South Florida (9-3)	1.4487	Tennessee (9-4)	1.0573
15	Tennessee (9-4)	1.4291	Hawai`i (12-0)	1.0500
16	Oregon (8-4)	1.4263	Oregon (8-4)	1.0209
17	Cincinnati (9-3)	1.3473	Clemson (9-3)	0.9761
18	Clemson (9-3)	1.3447	Brigham Young (10-2)	0.9422
19	Virginia (9-3)	1.3406	Virginia (9-3)	0.9400
20	Brigham Young (10-2)	1.3381	Cincinnati (9-3)	0.9039
21	Illinois (9-3)	1.3262	Oregon St (8-4)	0.9009
22	Oregon St (8-4)	1.3006	Illinois (9-3)	0.8699
23	Auburn (8-4)	1.2581	Auburn (8-4)	0.8621
24	Connecticut (9-3)	1.2171	Connecticut (9-3)	0.7887
25	Arkansas (8-4)	1.1909	Texas (9-3)	0.7332
26	Texas (9-3)	1.1735	Arkansas (8-4)	0.6886
27	Kentucky (7-5)	1.1440	Kentucky (7-5)	0.6727
28	Wisconsin (9-3)	1.1050	Wake Forest (8-4)	0.6392
29	Michigan (8-4)	1.0854	Wisconsin (9-3)	0.6235
30	UCLA (6-6)	1.0819	Florida St (7-5)	0.6091
31	Florida St (7-5)	1.0705	Boise St (10-2)	0.5143
32	Wake Forest (8-4)	1.0574	Michigan (8-4)	0.5116
33	Boise St (10-2)	1.0000	UCLA (6-6)	0.5102
34	South Carolina (6-6)	0.9974	Mississippi St (7-5)	0.4965
35	Mississippi St (7-5)	0.9972	Central Florida (10-3)	0.4832
36	Utah (8-4)	0.9894	Air Force (9-3)	0.4703
37	Texas Tech (8-4)	0.9871	South Carolina (6-6)	0.4671
38	Central Florida (10-3)	0.9839	Penn State (8-4)	0.4628
39	California (6-6)	0.9656	Texas A&M (7-5)	0.4580
40	Texas A&M (7-5)	0.9647	Utah (8-4)	0.4528
41	Air Force (9-3)	0.9599	Georgia Tech (7-5)	0.4171
42	Penn State (8-4)	0.9594	Texas Tech (8-4)	0.3954
43	Alabama (6-6)	0.9203	California (6-6)	0.3940
44	Georgia Tech (7-5)	0.9171	Alabama (6-6)	0.3554
45	Colorado (6-6)	0.9119	Rutgers (7-5)	0.3226
46	Rutgers (7-5)	0.8825	Michigan St (7-5)	0.2853
47	Maryland (6-6)	0.8780	Maryland (6-6)	0.2853
48	Michigan St (7-5)	0.8634	Oklahoma St (6-6)	0.2661
49	Louisville (6-6)	0.8552	Troy (8-4)	0.2649
50	Tulsa (9-4)	0.8371	Colorado (6-6)	0.2593
51	Arizona (5-7)	0.8254	Louisville (6-6)	0.2130
52	Troy (8-4)	0.8234	New Mexico (8-4)	0.1967
53	New Mexico (8-4)	0.8229	Tulsa (9-4)	0.1881
54	Oklahoma St (6-6)	0.8157	Fresno St (8-4)	0.1742
55	Pittsburgh (5-7)	0.7628	Arizona (5-7)	0.1628
56	Fresno St (8-4)	0.7466	Nebraska (5-7)	0.1061
57	East Carolina (7-5)	0.7453	Purdue (7-5)	0.1016
58	Nebraska (5-7)	0.7317	TCU (7-5)	0.0685
59	Navy (8-4)	0.7301	North Carolina St (5-7)	0.0669
60	Washington St (5-7)	0.7282	East Carolina (7-5)	0.0613
61	Stanford (4-8)	0.7273	Indiana (7-5)	0.0594
62	North Carolina St (5-7)	0.7218	Washington St (5-7)	0.0528
63	Purdue (7-5)	0.7194	Vanderbilt (5-7)	0.0384
64	TCU (7-5)	0.7025	Pittsburgh (5-7)	0.0225
65	Indiana (7-5)	0.6981	Navy (8-4)	-0.0179
66	Miami FL (5-7)	0.6945	Miami FL (5-7)	-0.0275
67	Washington (4-9)	0.6922	Florida Atlantic (7-5)	-0.0398
68	Vanderbilt (5-7)	0.6689	Washington (4-9)	-0.0473
69	Kansas St (5-7)	0.6674	Bowling Green (8-4)	-0.0842
70	Iowa (6-6)	0.6636	Houston (8-4)	-0.0977
71	Florida Atlantic (7-5)	0.6590	Stanford (4-8)	-0.0977
72	Bowling Green (8-4)	0.6300	Kansas St (5-7)	-0.1263
73	Northwestern (6-6)	0.6263	Ball St (7-5)	-0.1400
74	Central Michigan (8-5)	0.6166	Northwestern (6-6)	-0.1935
75	Houston (8-4)	0.6039	Central Michigan (8-5)	-0.1950
76	Wyoming (5-7)	0.6027	Iowa (6-6)	-0.2125
77	Ball St (7-5)	0.6005	North Carolina (4-8)	-0.2331
78	Southern Miss (7-5)	0.5738	Wyoming (5-7)	-0.2522
79	North Carolina (4-8)	0.5705	Southern Miss (7-5)	-0.2825
80	Louisiana-Monroe (6-6)	0.5652	Mississippi (3-9)	-0.2882
81	Mississippi (3-9)	0.5407	San Diego St (4-8)	-0.3818
82	Notre Dame (3-9)	0.5389	Nevada (6-6)	-0.3974
83	Iowa St (3-9)	0.5294	Notre Dame (3-9)	-0.4007
84	Western Kentucky (7-5)	0.5161	Louisiana-Monroe (6-6)	-0.4143
85	Middle Tennessee St (5-7)	0.4909	Memphis (7-5)	-0.4156
86	San Diego St (4-8)	0.4908	Louisiana Tech (5-7)	-0.4342
87	Miami OH (6-7)	0.4842	Western Kentucky (7-5)	-0.4507
88	Memphis (7-5)	0.4831	San Jose St (5-7)	-0.4821
89	Louisiana Tech (5-7)	0.4796	Middle Tennessee St (5-7)	-0.5298
90	Ohio U. (6-6)	0.4771	Western Michigan (5-7)	-0.5935
91	Nevada (6-6)	0.4765	Miami OH (6-7)	-0.6048
92	Western Michigan (5-7)	0.4653	Ohio U. (6-6)	-0.6418
93	San Jose St (5-7)	0.4641	Baylor (3-9)	-0.6525
94	Syracuse (2-10)	0.4456	Toledo (5-7)	-0.6723
95	Baylor (3-9)	0.4234	Arkansas St (5-7)	-0.6724
96	Toledo (5-7)	0.4147	Buffalo (5-7)	-0.7101
97	UTEP (4-8)	0.4129	Colorado St (3-9)	-0.7473
98	Arkansas St (5-7)	0.4087	Syracuse (2-10)	-0.7990
99	Buffalo (5-7)	0.3960	Iowa St (3-9)	-0.8306
100	Akron (4-8)	0.3926	Akron (4-8)	-0.8403
101	Colorado St (3-9)	0.3910	Army (3-9)	-0.8409
102	Duke (1-11)	0.3892	Eastern Michigan (4-8)	-0.8910
103	Marshall (3-9)	0.3864	New Mexico St (4-9)	-0.9710
104	UNLV (2-10)	0.3839	Tulane (4-8)	-0.9729
105	Army (3-9)	0.3679	Duke (1-11)	-0.9742
106	Tulane (4-8)	0.3651	Marshall (3-9)	-0.9836
107	Eastern Michigan (4-8)	0.3640	Temple (4-8)	-1.0044
108	New Mexico St (4-9)	0.3561	UTEP (4-8)	-1.0198
109	Temple (4-8)	0.3415	UNLV (2-10)	-1.0214
110	Louisiana-Lafayette (3-9)	0.3314	Louisiana-Lafayette (3-9)	-1.2277
111	Kent St (3-9)	0.3309	Alabama-Birmingham (2-10)	-1.2446
112	FCS teams (XXX-XXX)	0.3286	Utah St (2-10)	-1.2925
113	Minnesota (1-11)	0.3230	Rice (3-9)	-1.4278
114	Utah St (2-10)	0.3216	Kent St (3-9)	-1.4563
115	North Texas (2-10)	0.3189	FCS teams (XXX-XXX)	-1.4582
116	Rice (3-9)	0.3074	Minnesota (1-11)	-1.4744
117	Alabama-Birmingham (2-10)	0.3008	Florida Int'l (1-11)	-1.7117
118	Florida Int'l (1-11)	0.2800	North Texas (2-10)	-1.8526
119	Idaho (1-11)	0.2661	Northern Illinois (2-10)	-1.9372
120	Northern Illinois (2-10)	0.2319	Idaho (1-11)	-2.0790
121	SMU (1-11)	0.2242	SMU (1-11)	-2.1635

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