Monkeys Shock the BCS!

We use the Random Walkers to rank all 119 Division-IA teams, plus the extra made-up "team" representing their collective Non-Division-IA opponents. The "votes" in the Random Walker (RW) system are all essentially first-place votes, teams with more votes ranked more highly. The Random Walker with First & Last (RWFL) system is a combination of "first-place" and "last-place" votes. We have determined that our bias parameter p=0.75 has nice properties for RWFL (near the minimum crossing probability when compared against round-robin standings), so we use p=0.75 for both RW and RWFL and are happy that this is coincidentally the same primary value we have used in the past for the RW rankings.

2006-2007 Random Walker Rankings (p=0.75)
Games Through Monday January 8th
	RW		RWFL
Rank	Team (Wins-Losses)	% of Total Votes	Team (Wins-Losses)	%(First)-%(Last)
1	Florida (13-1)	2.9482	Florida (13-1)	2.7324
2	Southern Cal (11-2)	2.4905	Southern Cal (11-2)	2.2605
3	Louisville (12-1)	2.2616	Louisville (12-1)	2.0142
4	Auburn (11-2)	2.2099	Auburn (11-2)	1.9153
5	LSU (11-2)	2.1275	LSU (11-2)	1.8764
6	Ohio State (12-1)	2.0720	Ohio State (12-1)	1.7870
7	Boise St (13-0)	2.0517	Boise St (13-0)	1.7405
8	Michigan (11-2)	1.8307	Michigan (11-2)	1.5563
9	California (10-3)	1.7369	West Virginia (11-2)	1.4348
10	West Virginia (11-2)	1.7295	California (10-3)	1.4272
11	Rutgers (11-2)	1.6701	Rutgers (11-2)	1.3482
12	Wisconsin (12-1)	1.6135	Wisconsin (12-1)	1.2423
13	Oregon St (10-4)	1.5819	Arkansas (10-4)	1.2251
14	Arkansas (10-4)	1.5796	Oregon St (10-4)	1.2236
15	Tennessee (9-4)	1.5305	Tennessee (9-4)	1.1959
16	Notre Dame (10-3)	1.4511	Notre Dame (10-3)	1.1396
17	Georgia (9-4)	1.4324	Georgia (9-4)	1.0118
18	Boston College (10-3)	1.3919	Oklahoma (11-3)	1.0063
19	Wake Forest (11-3)	1.3757	Wake Forest (11-3)	0.9924
20	Oklahoma (11-3)	1.3476	Boston College (10-3)	0.9054
21	Virginia Tech (10-3)	1.3035	Virginia Tech (10-3)	0.8915
22	Texas (10-3)	1.2568	Texas (10-3)	0.8704
23	Brigham Young (11-2)	1.2543	Brigham Young (11-2)	0.8478
24	UCLA (7-6)	1.2424	Kentucky (8-5)	0.7921
25	Kentucky (8-5)	1.1786	UCLA (7-6)	0.7752
26	South Carolina (8-5)	1.1462	South Carolina (8-5)	0.7541
27	Arizona (6-6)	1.1283	Penn State (9-4)	0.6440
28	Penn State (9-4)	1.0828	Arizona (6-6)	0.6182
29	South Florida (9-4)	1.0804	Cincinnati (8-5)	0.5936
30	Oregon (7-6)	1.0604	South Florida (9-4)	0.5889
31	Cincinnati (8-5)	1.0593	Oregon (7-6)	0.5806
32	Washington St (6-6)	1.0551	Maryland (9-4)	0.5759
33	Maryland (9-4)	1.0419	Texas A&M (9-4)	0.5701
34	Georgia Tech (9-5)	1.0175	Georgia Tech (9-5)	0.5524
35	Texas A&M (9-4)	1.0098	Washington St (6-6)	0.5465
36	Nebraska (9-5)	0.9926	Nebraska (9-5)	0.5439
37	TCU (11-2)	0.9890	TCU (11-2)	0.5371
38	Hawai`i (10-3)	0.9678	Hawai`i (10-3)	0.4873
39	Clemson (8-5)	0.9505	Clemson (8-5)	0.4555
40	Arizona St (7-6)	0.9312	Houston (10-4)	0.3636
41	Washington (5-7)	0.9086	Florida St (7-6)	0.2949
42	Florida St (7-6)	0.8832	Washington (5-7)	0.2913
43	Houston (10-4)	0.8774	Arizona St (7-6)	0.2868
44	Missouri (8-5)	0.8243	Southern Miss (9-5)	0.2783
45	Southern Miss (9-5)	0.8176	Missouri (8-5)	0.2779
46	Texas Tech (8-5)	0.8042	Texas Tech (8-5)	0.2109
47	Miami FL (7-6)	0.7853	Central Michigan (10-4)	0.1897
48	Central Michigan (10-4)	0.7834	Navy (9-4)	0.1733
49	Alabama (6-7)	0.7766	Oklahoma St (7-6)	0.1634
50	Navy (9-4)	0.7681	San Jose St (9-4)	0.1548
51	Kansas St (7-6)	0.7508	Kansas St (7-6)	0.1174
52	Pittsburgh (6-6)	0.7428	Miami FL (7-6)	0.1057
53	Utah (8-5)	0.7349	Pittsburgh (6-6)	0.1013
54	San Jose St (9-4)	0.7347	Alabama (6-7)	0.0994
55	Oklahoma St (7-6)	0.7277	Utah (8-5)	0.0825
56	Tulsa (8-5)	0.7003	Tulsa (8-5)	0.0731
57	Purdue (8-6)	0.6742	Purdue (8-6)	0.0687
58	Minnesota (6-7)	0.6686	Minnesota (6-7)	0.0237
59	Vanderbilt (4-8)	0.6652	Nevada (8-5)	-0.0190
60	Nevada (8-5)	0.6609	Rice (7-6)	-0.0346
61	Iowa (6-7)	0.6387	East Carolina (7-6)	-0.0561
62	East Carolina (7-6)	0.6382	Iowa (6-7)	-0.0934
63	Rice (7-6)	0.6246	Middle Tennessee St (7-6)	-0.0967
64	Mississippi (4-8)	0.6084	Mississippi (4-8)	-0.1397
65	Ohio U. (9-5)	0.6034	Vanderbilt (4-8)	-0.1565
66	Kansas (6-6)	0.6008	Troy (8-5)	-0.1596
67	Troy (8-5)	0.5952	Ohio U. (9-5)	-0.1643
68	Middle Tennessee St (7-6)	0.5950	Connecticut (4-8)	-0.1698
69	Connecticut (4-8)	0.5903	Western Michigan (8-5)	-0.1885
70	Indiana (5-7)	0.5850	Syracuse (4-8)	-0.2101
71	Syracuse (4-8)	0.5676	Kansas (6-6)	-0.2132
72	Mississippi St (3-9)	0.5649	Wyoming (6-6)	-0.2479
73	Wyoming (6-6)	0.5576	Virginia (5-7)	-0.2756
74	Western Michigan (8-5)	0.5552	Indiana (5-7)	-0.2769
75	Virginia (5-7)	0.5354	Mississippi St (3-9)	-0.3222
76	Northern Illinois (7-6)	0.5177	Northern Illinois (7-6)	-0.4009
77	Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6)	0.5172	SMU (6-6)	-0.4031
78	Michigan St (4-8)	0.5115	Baylor (4-8)	-0.4277
79	SMU (6-6)	0.5062	Marshall (5-7)	-0.4333
80	Tulane (4-8)	0.5025	Tulane (4-8)	-0.4506
81	North Carolina St (3-9)	0.5008	Michigan St (4-8)	-0.4658
82	Fresno St (4-8)	0.4987	Arkansas St (6-6)	-0.4751
83	Stanford (1-11)	0.4972	Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6)	-0.4933
84	Baylor (4-8)	0.4887	New Mexico (6-7)	-0.5001
85	Northwestern (4-8)	0.4715	Central Florida (4-8)	-0.5315
86	Arkansas St (6-6)	0.4673	North Carolina (3-9)	-0.5578
87	New Mexico (6-7)	0.4664	Fresno St (4-8)	-0.5834
88	Marshall (5-7)	0.4653	Florida Atlantic (5-7)	-0.6017
89	North Carolina (3-9)	0.4505	Idaho (4-8)	-0.6169
90	Central Florida (4-8)	0.4495	Stanford (1-11)	-0.6170
91	Air Force (4-8)	0.4477	Air Force (4-8)	-0.6461
92	Iowa St (4-8)	0.4369	Northwestern (4-8)	-0.6516
93	Idaho (4-8)	0.4349	North Carolina St (3-9)	-0.6552
94	UTEP (5-7)	0.4037	Iowa St (4-8)	-0.6565
95	Florida Atlantic (5-7)	0.3942	UTEP (5-7)	-0.6580
96	Illinois (2-10)	0.3906	Akron (5-7)	-0.7563
97	Toledo (5-7)	0.3879	Ball St (5-7)	-0.8011
98	Kent St (6-6)	0.3865	Kent St (6-6)	-0.8301
99	Akron (5-7)	0.3861	Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)	-0.8355
100	Ball St (5-7)	0.3818	New Mexico St (4-8)	-0.8949
101	Alabama-Birmingham (3-9)	0.3722	Army (3-9)	-0.8997
102	Colorado (2-10)	0.3679	Alabama-Birmingham (3-9)	-0.9131
103	New Mexico St (4-8)	0.3651	Colorado St (4-8)	-0.9182
104	Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)	0.3646	Illinois (2-10)	-0.9563
105	Bowling Green (4-8)	0.3639	Toledo (5-7)	-0.9761
106	Colorado St (4-8)	0.3533	Louisiana Tech (3-10)	-0.9979
107	Louisiana Tech (3-10)	0.3490	San Diego St (3-9)	-1.0511
108	Army (3-9)	0.3487	Colorado (2-10)	-1.1916
109	San Diego St (3-9)	0.3446	Memphis (2-10)	-1.3070
110	Buffalo (2-10)	0.3293	North Texas (3-9)	-1.3180
111	Utah St (1-11)	0.3290	Bowling Green (4-8)	-1.3638
112	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	0.3285	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	-1.3902
113	Temple (1-11)	0.2959	UNLV (2-10)	-1.4298
114	North Texas (3-9)	0.2928	Utah St (1-11)	-1.4474
115	Duke (0-12)	0.2856	Buffalo (2-10)	-1.6317
116	Memphis (2-10)	0.2851	Miami OH (2-10)	-1.6674
117	UNLV (2-10)	0.2842	Temple (1-11)	-1.6867
118	Miami OH (2-10)	0.2401	Duke (0-12)	-1.8761
119	Eastern Michigan (1-11)	0.2066	Eastern Michigan (1-11)	-2.2172
120	Florida Int'l (0-12)	0.2021	Florida Int'l (0-12)	-2.6100

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