Monkeys Shock the BCS!

We use the Random Walkers to rank all 119 Division-IA teams, plus the extra made-up "team" representing their collective Non-Division-IA opponents. The "votes" in the Random Walker (RW) system are all essentially first-place votes, teams with more votes ranked more highly. The Random Walker with First & Last (RWFL) system is a combination of "first-place" and "last-place" votes. We have determined that our bias parameter p=0.75 has nice properties for RWFL (near the minimum crossing probability when compared against round-robin standings), so we use p=0.75 for both RW and RWFL and are happy that this is coincidentally the same primary value we have used in the past for the RW rankings.

2006 Random Walker Rankings (p=0.75)
Games Through Saturday December 2nd
	RW		RWFL
Rank	Team (Wins-Losses)	% of Total Votes	Team (Wins-Losses)	%(First)-%(Last)
1	Florida (12-1)	2.6043	Florida (12-1)	2.3717
2	Southern Cal (10-2)	2.4950	Southern Cal (10-2)	2.2838
3	Ohio State (12-0)	2.4656	Ohio State (12-0)	2.1911
4	Michigan (11-1)	2.1151	Michigan (11-1)	1.8539
5	Auburn (10-2)	2.0481	Auburn (10-2)	1.7368
6	Louisville (11-1)	1.9846	Louisville (11-1)	1.7162
7	LSU (10-2)	1.9717	LSU (10-2)	1.7061
8	Boise St (12-0)	1.8395	Boise St (12-0)	1.5138
9	California (9-3)	1.8001	California (9-3)	1.5067
10	Arkansas (10-3)	1.6829	Notre Dame (10-2)	1.3882
11	Notre Dame (10-2)	1.6753	Arkansas (10-3)	1.3470
12	Tennessee (9-3)	1.6420	Tennessee (9-3)	1.3370
13	Oregon St (9-4)	1.6040	Oregon St (9-4)	1.2614
14	West Virginia (10-2)	1.5519	West Virginia (10-2)	1.2311
15	Rutgers (10-2)	1.5515	Rutgers (10-2)	1.2075
16	Oklahoma (11-2)	1.5161	Oklahoma (11-2)	1.1986
17	Wisconsin (11-1)	1.4490	UCLA (7-5)	1.0586
18	Virginia Tech (10-2)	1.4474	Wisconsin (11-1)	1.0548
19	Wake Forest (11-2)	1.4353	Wake Forest (11-2)	1.0519
20	UCLA (7-5)	1.4300	Virginia Tech (10-2)	1.0475
21	Boston College (9-3)	1.3040	Texas (9-3)	0.8871
22	Texas (9-3)	1.2868	Oregon (7-5)	0.8227
23	Georgia (8-4)	1.2473	Georgia (8-4)	0.7886
24	Oregon (7-5)	1.2349	Boston College (9-3)	0.7667
25	Arizona (6-6)	1.1584	Arizona (6-6)	0.7071
26	Washington St (6-6)	1.1130	Texas A&M (9-3)	0.6719
27	Texas A&M (9-3)	1.0992	Washington St (6-6)	0.6642
28	Brigham Young (10-2)	1.0921	Brigham Young (10-2)	0.6609
29	Arizona St (7-5)	1.0918	Arizona St (7-5)	0.6600
30	Georgia Tech (9-4)	1.0729	Nebraska (9-4)	0.6137
31	Nebraska (9-4)	1.0516	South Carolina (7-5)	0.6129
32	South Carolina (7-5)	1.0388	Georgia Tech (9-4)	0.6075
33	Kentucky (7-5)	1.0266	Kentucky (7-5)	0.6000
34	Clemson (8-4)	1.0195	Clemson (8-4)	0.5300
35	Cincinnati (7-5)	0.9935	Penn State (8-4)	0.5063
36	Penn State (8-4)	0.9769	Cincinnati (7-5)	0.4899
37	South Florida (8-4)	0.9696	Hawai`i (10-3)	0.4854
38	Houston (10-3)	0.9603	Houston (10-3)	0.4568
39	Maryland (8-4)	0.9600	Maryland (8-4)	0.4453
40	Hawai`i (10-3)	0.9592	TCU (10-2)	0.4358
41	Washington (5-7)	0.9583	South Florida (8-4)	0.4313
42	TCU (10-2)	0.9136	Washington (5-7)	0.4181
43	Missouri (8-4)	0.8861	Missouri (8-4)	0.3623
44	Navy (9-3)	0.8359	Navy (9-3)	0.2769
45	Alabama (6-6)	0.8156	Southern Miss (8-5)	0.2200
46	Southern Miss (8-5)	0.7782	Tulsa (8-4)	0.2063
47	Tulsa (8-4)	0.7777	Alabama (6-6)	0.1695
48	Texas Tech (7-5)	0.7672	Purdue (8-5)	0.1682
49	Kansas St (7-5)	0.7670	Minnesota (6-6)	0.1632
50	Minnesota (6-6)	0.7599	Kansas St (7-5)	0.1424
51	Central Michigan (9-4)	0.7595	Texas Tech (7-5)	0.1318
52	Purdue (8-5)	0.7465	Central Michigan (9-4)	0.1237
53	Florida St (6-6)	0.7453	Rice (7-5)	0.1178
54	Miami FL (6-6)	0.7198	San Jose St (8-4)	0.1006
55	Iowa (6-6)	0.7075	Nevada (8-4)	0.0994
56	Rice (7-5)	0.7064	Florida St (6-6)	0.0789
57	Nevada (8-4)	0.7046	Oklahoma St (6-6)	0.0675
58	Pittsburgh (6-6)	0.6985	Pittsburgh (6-6)	0.0348
59	San Jose St (8-4)	0.6875	East Carolina (7-5)	0.0195
60	Oklahoma St (6-6)	0.6786	Iowa (6-6)	-0.0017
61	East Carolina (7-5)	0.6682	Miami FL (6-6)	-0.0479
62	Ohio U. (9-4)	0.6626	Middle Tennessee St (7-5)	-0.0605
63	Utah (7-5)	0.6407	Utah (7-5)	-0.0620
64	Vanderbilt (4-8)	0.6407	Ohio U. (9-4)	-0.0854
65	Indiana (5-7)	0.6295	Western Michigan (8-4)	-0.1385
66	Middle Tennessee St (7-5)	0.6180	Mississippi (4-8)	-0.1693
67	Kansas (6-6)	0.5965	Vanderbilt (4-8)	-0.1902
68	Western Michigan (8-4)	0.5936	Connecticut (4-8)	-0.2183
69	Mississippi (4-8)	0.5881	Kansas (6-6)	-0.2233
70	Northern Illinois (7-5)	0.5676	Indiana (5-7)	-0.2315
71	Connecticut (4-8)	0.5668	Syracuse (4-8)	-0.2646
72	Michigan St (4-8)	0.5462	Troy (7-5)	-0.3006
73	Syracuse (4-8)	0.5387	Wyoming (6-6)	-0.3072
74	Mississippi St (3-9)	0.5385	Virginia (5-7)	-0.3108
75	Troy (7-5)	0.5341	Northern Illinois (7-5)	-0.3328
76	Stanford (1-11)	0.5294	Mississippi St (3-9)	-0.3744
77	Virginia (5-7)	0.5215	SMU (6-6)	-0.3806
78	Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6)	0.5187	Michigan St (4-8)	-0.4174
79	SMU (6-6)	0.5183	Baylor (4-8)	-0.4251
80	Wyoming (6-6)	0.5168	Marshall (5-7)	-0.4293
81	Tulane (4-8)	0.5018	Tulane (4-8)	-0.4405
82	Northwestern (4-8)	0.5011	Stanford (1-11)	-0.4511
83	Baylor (4-8)	0.4961	New Mexico (6-6)	-0.4864
84	Fresno St (4-8)	0.4924	Arkansas St (6-6)	-0.5089
85	North Carolina St (3-9)	0.4795	Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6)	-0.5139
86	New Mexico (6-6)	0.4650	Central Florida (4-8)	-0.5417
87	Marshall (5-7)	0.4621	Fresno St (4-8)	-0.5653
88	North Carolina (3-9)	0.4551	North Carolina (3-9)	-0.5840
89	Arkansas St (6-6)	0.4530	Idaho (4-8)	-0.6001
90	Iowa St (4-8)	0.4522	Northwestern (4-8)	-0.6170
91	Air Force (4-8)	0.4441	UTEP (5-7)	-0.6340
92	Central Florida (4-8)	0.4356	Iowa St (4-8)	-0.6393
93	Idaho (4-8)	0.4260	Florida Atlantic (5-7)	-0.6412
94	UTEP (5-7)	0.4084	Air Force (4-8)	-0.6587
95	Kent St (6-6)	0.4037	North Carolina St (3-9)	-0.7009
96	Ball St (5-7)	0.4028	Akron (5-7)	-0.7756
97	Illinois (2-10)	0.4003	Ball St (5-7)	-0.7851
98	Toledo (5-7)	0.3939	Kent St (6-6)	-0.8072
99	Florida Atlantic (5-7)	0.3855	Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)	-0.8667
100	Akron (5-7)	0.3825	Army (3-9)	-0.8779
101	Bowling Green (4-8)	0.3779	New Mexico St (4-8)	-0.8907
102	Colorado (2-10)	0.3738	Alabama-Birmingham (3-9)	-0.9078
103	Alabama-Birmingham (3-9)	0.3697	Colorado St (4-8)	-0.9454
104	Army (3-9)	0.3613	Illinois (2-10)	-0.9523
105	Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)	0.3599	Toledo (5-7)	-0.9798
106	New Mexico St (4-8)	0.3518	Louisiana Tech (3-10)	-0.9802
107	Louisiana Tech (3-10)	0.3456	San Diego St (3-9)	-1.1049
108	Colorado St (4-8)	0.3376	Colorado (2-10)	-1.1580
109	Buffalo (2-10)	0.3217	Memphis (2-10)	-1.2828
110	San Diego St (3-9)	0.3215	North Texas (3-9)	-1.3378
111	Utah St (1-11)	0.3154	Bowling Green (4-8)	-1.3660
112	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	0.3141	Utah St (1-11)	-1.4487
113	North Texas (3-9)	0.2946	UNLV (2-10)	-1.4589
114	Temple (1-11)	0.2940	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	-1.4618
115	Memphis (2-10)	0.2907	Miami OH (2-10)	-1.6629
116	Duke (0-12)	0.2863	Buffalo (2-10)	-1.6642
117	UNLV (2-10)	0.2712	Temple (1-11)	-1.6906
118	Miami OH (2-10)	0.2466	Duke (0-12)	-1.9395
119	Eastern Michigan (1-11)	0.2162	Eastern Michigan (1-11)	-2.2031
120	Florida Int'l (0-12)	0.1946	Florida Int'l (0-12)	-2.7064

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