Monkeys Shock the BCS!

We use the Random Walkers to rank all 119 Division-IA teams, plus the extra made-up "team" representing their collective Non-Division-IA opponents. The "votes" in the Random Walker (RW) system are all essentially first-place votes, teams with more votes ranked more highly. In addition, we consider a slight extension, the Random Walker with First & Last (RWFL) system is a combination of "first-place" and "last-place" votes. We have determined that our bias parameter p=0.75 has nice properties for RWFL (technical, to be discussed later), so we use p=0.75 for RWFL and are happy that this is coincidentally the same primary value we have used in the past for the RW rankings.

2005 Random Walker Rankings (p=0.75)
Games Through Saturday December 3rd
	RW		RWFL
Rank	Team (Wins-Losses)	% of Total Votes	Team (Wins-Losses)	%(First)-%(Last)
1	Texas (12-0)	2.9630	Texas (12-0)	2.7379
2	Southern Cal (12-0)	2.7572	Southern Cal (12-0)	2.5127
3	Penn State (10-1)	2.4321	Penn State (10-1)	2.2417
4	Ohio State (9-2)	1.9905	Ohio State (9-2)	1.7757
5	Virginia Tech (10-2)	1.9890	Virginia Tech (10-2)	1.7189
6	Miami FL (9-2)	1.9005	Miami FL (9-2)	1.5956
7	Georgia (10-2)	1.8049	Georgia (10-2)	1.5048
8	Oregon (10-1)	1.7433	Oregon (10-1)	1.3999
9	LSU (10-2)	1.7236	LSU (10-2)	1.3302
10	Auburn (9-2)	1.6612	West Virginia (10-1)	1.3063
11	West Virginia (10-1)	1.6248	Auburn (9-2)	1.2994
12	Notre Dame (9-2)	1.5522	Notre Dame (9-2)	1.2362
13	UCLA (9-2)	1.5371	Michigan (7-4)	1.1875
14	Texas Tech (9-2)	1.5174	UCLA (9-2)	1.1196
15	Michigan (7-4)	1.4767	Alabama (9-2)	1.1048
16	Georgia Tech (7-4)	1.4722	Georgia Tech (7-4)	1.1026
17	Alabama (9-2)	1.4682	Wisconsin (9-3)	1.0973
18	Florida (8-3)	1.4361	Florida (8-3)	1.0847
19	Florida St (8-4)	1.4084	Texas Tech (9-2)	1.0796
20	Wisconsin (9-3)	1.4013	Boston College (8-3)	1.0584
21	TCU (10-1)	1.3906	TCU (10-1)	1.0022
22	Boston College (8-3)	1.3788	Florida St (8-4)	0.9569
23	Oklahoma (7-4)	1.2774	Northwestern (7-4)	0.9545
24	Northwestern (7-4)	1.2674	Oklahoma (7-4)	0.9229
25	Minnesota (7-4)	1.2170	Minnesota (7-4)	0.8779
26	Clemson (7-4)	1.2162	Louisville (9-2)	0.7949
27	Louisville (9-2)	1.1896	Clemson (7-4)	0.7949
28	Iowa (7-4)	1.1335	Iowa (7-4)	0.7437
29	South Carolina (7-4)	1.1317	South Carolina (7-4)	0.7319
30	Colorado (7-5)	1.1012	Colorado (7-5)	0.6300
31	Nebraska (7-4)	1.0531	Nebraska (7-4)	0.5760
32	North Carolina St (6-5)	1.0066	North Carolina (5-6)	0.4746
33	Iowa St (7-4)	0.9898	Virginia (6-5)	0.4707
34	Virginia (6-5)	0.9770	North Carolina St (6-5)	0.4669
35	Arizona St (6-5)	0.9673	Iowa St (7-4)	0.4646
36	North Carolina (5-6)	0.9480	Arizona St (6-5)	0.4164
37	Kansas (6-5)	0.9406	Kansas (6-5)	0.3633
38	Missouri (6-5)	0.8958	Purdue (5-6)	0.3436
39	California (7-4)	0.8955	Michigan St (5-6)	0.3338
40	South Florida (6-5)	0.8710	Maryland (5-6)	0.3145
41	Maryland (5-6)	0.8369	Missouri (6-5)	0.3064
42	Tennessee (5-6)	0.8342	South Florida (6-5)	0.2959
43	Michigan St (5-6)	0.8283	California (7-4)	0.2668
44	Stanford (5-6)	0.8256	Tennessee (5-6)	0.2585
45	Purdue (5-6)	0.7915	Tulsa (8-4)	0.1812
46	Texas A&M (5-6)	0.7788	Texas A&M (5-6)	0.1674
47	Tulsa (8-4)	0.7726	Central Florida (8-4)	0.1425
48	Baylor (5-6)	0.7555	Baylor (5-6)	0.1026
49	Fresno St (8-4)	0.7532	Boise St (9-3)	0.1011
50	Boise St (9-3)	0.7499	Toledo (8-3)	0.0860
51	Wake Forest (4-7)	0.7253	Rutgers (7-4)	0.0836
52	Central Florida (8-4)	0.7197	Fresno St (8-4)	0.0618
53	UTEP (8-3)	0.7061	Central Michigan (6-5)	0.0617
54	Rutgers (7-4)	0.7005	Wake Forest (4-7)	0.0441
55	Central Michigan (6-5)	0.6849	Stanford (5-6)	0.0228
56	Toledo (8-3)	0.6841	Northern Illinois (7-5)	0.0180
57	Oregon St (5-6)	0.6837	Colorado St (6-5)	0.0090
58	Vanderbilt (5-6)	0.6829	Kansas St (5-6)	-0.0190
59	Kansas St (5-6)	0.6706	Miami OH (7-4)	-0.0359
60	Northern Illinois (7-5)	0.6608	Brigham Young (6-5)	-0.0570
61	Oklahoma St (4-7)	0.6494	Indiana (4-7)	-0.0586
62	Colorado St (6-5)	0.6492	UTEP (8-3)	-0.0633
63	Nevada (8-3)	0.6481	Nevada (8-3)	-0.0729
64	Arkansas (4-7)	0.6385	Pittsburgh (5-6)	-0.1057
65	Brigham Young (6-5)	0.6324	Oregon St (5-6)	-0.1079
66	Pittsburgh (5-6)	0.6149	Navy (7-4)	-0.1192
67	Arizona (3-8)	0.6107	Arkansas (4-7)	-0.1331
68	Miami OH (7-4)	0.6105	Vanderbilt (5-6)	-0.1461
69	SMU (5-6)	0.6048	Southern Miss (6-5)	-0.1515
70	New Mexico (6-5)	0.5951	Utah (6-5)	-0.1741
71	Memphis (6-5)	0.5938	Western Michigan (7-4)	-0.1779
72	Houston (6-5)	0.5938	Akron (7-5)	-0.1782
73	Southern Miss (6-5)	0.5874	Louisiana Tech (7-4)	-0.1886
74	Indiana (4-7)	0.5859	Oklahoma St (4-7)	-0.2064
75	Louisiana Tech (7-4)	0.5832	Memphis (6-5)	-0.2073
76	Navy (7-4)	0.5813	New Mexico (6-5)	-0.2196
77	Utah (6-5)	0.5717	Houston (6-5)	-0.2264
78	Washington St (4-7)	0.5683	Bowling Green (6-5)	-0.2427
79	Akron (7-5)	0.5538	Connecticut (5-6)	-0.2722
80	Western Michigan (7-4)	0.5527	Ball St (4-7)	-0.2741
81	San Diego St (5-7)	0.5463	East Carolina (5-6)	-0.3186
82	Connecticut (5-6)	0.5425	Cincinnati (4-7)	-0.3347
83	Ball St (4-7)	0.5185	Washington St (4-7)	-0.3716
84	Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5)	0.5139	Illinois (2-9)	-0.3940
85	Bowling Green (6-5)	0.5109	SMU (5-6)	-0.4199
86	Cincinnati (4-7)	0.5068	San Diego St (5-7)	-0.4381
87	East Carolina (5-6)	0.5066	Army (4-7)	-0.4602
88	Kentucky (3-8)	0.4948	Arizona (3-8)	-0.4862
89	Illinois (2-9)	0.4882	Ohio U. (4-7)	-0.4917
90	Mississippi St (3-8)	0.4727	Hawai`i (5-7)	-0.4956
91	Washington (2-9)	0.4687	Kentucky (3-8)	-0.4984
92	Hawai`i (5-7)	0.4685	Alabama-Birmingham (5-6)	-0.5810
93	Army (4-7)	0.4517	Wyoming (4-7)	-0.5976
94	Alabama-Birmingham (5-6)	0.4480	Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5)	-0.5987
95	Mississippi (3-8)	0.4432	Mississippi St (3-8)	-0.6102
96	Ohio U. (4-7)	0.4346	Marshall (4-7)	-0.6424
97	Marshall (4-7)	0.4218	Eastern Michigan (4-7)	-0.6427
98	Arkansas St (6-5)	0.4211	Air Force (4-7)	-0.6444
99	Wyoming (4-7)	0.4155	Arkansas St (6-5)	-0.7314
100	Air Force (4-7)	0.4135	Mississippi (3-8)	-0.7495
101	Duke (1-10)	0.4042	Washington (2-9)	-0.8099
102	Louisiana-Monroe (5-6)	0.3932	Duke (1-10)	-0.9282
103	Eastern Michigan (4-7)	0.3908	Louisiana-Monroe (5-6)	-1.0062
104	Middle Tennessee St (4-7)	0.3871	Florida Int'l (5-6)	-1.1017
105	Florida Int'l (5-6)	0.3701	Syracuse (1-10)	-1.1017
106	Syracuse (1-10)	0.3407	Middle Tennessee St (4-7)	-1.1345
107	Rice (1-10)	0.3303	Troy (4-7)	-1.2474
108	Troy (4-7)	0.3112	Temple (0-11)	-1.3368
109	Temple (0-11)	0.3103	Utah St (3-8)	-1.3567
110	Florida Atlantic (2-9)	0.2842	Rice (1-10)	-1.4221
111	Utah St (3-8)	0.2817	UNLV (2-9)	-1.4831
112	North Texas (2-9)	0.2740	San Jose St (3-8)	-1.4886
113	UNLV (2-9)	0.2717	Tulane (2-9)	-1.5726
114	Tulane (2-9)	0.2692	Florida Atlantic (2-9)	-1.7873
115	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	0.2684	North Texas (2-9)	-1.8737
116	San Jose St (3-8)	0.2433	Buffalo (1-10)	-1.8923
117	Idaho (2-9)	0.2139	Idaho (2-9)	-1.9968
118	New Mexico St (0-12)	0.2011	Kent St (1-10)	-1.9980
119	Kent St (1-10)	0.1974	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	-2.0412
120	Buffalo (1-10)	0.1908	New Mexico St (0-12)	-2.8144

THIS PAGE IS NEITHER A PUBLICATION OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA (UNC) NOR THE GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (GT), WHERE THIS WORK BEGAN. NEITHER UNC NOR GT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR EDITING OR EXAMINING ITS CONTENT. THE AUTHOR OF THIS PAGE IS SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTENT. THE RIGHTS TO ANY AND ALL MATERIALS CREATED BY THE AUTHOR OF THIS PAGE ARE RETAINED BY THAT AUTHOR.