Monkeys Shock the BCS!

We can use the random walking monkeys to try to rank all 117 Division-IA teams, plus the extra made-up "team" representing their collective Non-Division-IA opponents. Again, however, each monkey has only a first-place vote, so it may seem odd to expect any sort of reasonable ranking beyond the top teams. Of course, each of these rankings are only at a single value of the "coin weighting" or probability of choosing the winner of a game over the loser---results may be very different for different weightings.

2004 Random Walker Rankings (p=0.55,0.75,0.95)
Games Through Saturday December 4th
	p=0.55		p=0.75		p=0.95
Rank	Team (Wins-Losses)	% of Total Votes	Team (Wins-Losses)	% of Total Votes	Team (Wins-Losses)	% of Total Votes
1	Southern Cal (12-0)	1.1083	Southern Cal (12-0)	3.4404	Southern Cal (12-0)	18.6280
2	Oklahoma (12-0)	1.0922	Oklahoma (12-0)	3.0300	Oklahoma (12-0)	12.6930
3	Texas (10-1)	1.0593	Auburn (12-0)	2.7214	Auburn (12-0)	9.9891
4	Auburn (12-0)	1.0576	Utah (11-0)	2.4203	Utah (11-0)	7.5109
5	California (10-1)	1.0504	California (10-1)	2.3493	Boise St (11-0)	5.8313
6	Utah (11-0)	1.0458	Texas (10-1)	2.3229	California (10-1)	3.9615
7	Boise St (11-0)	1.0179	Boise St (11-0)	2.1285	Texas (10-1)	3.1956
8	Arizona St (8-3)	1.0154	Arizona St (8-3)	1.8280	Arizona St (8-3)	1.6825
9	Texas A&M (7-4)	0.9840	Virginia Tech (10-2)	1.5714	Virginia Tech (10-2)	1.6067
10	LSU (9-2)	0.9801	Georgia (9-2)	1.5710	Georgia (9-2)	1.2841
11	Iowa (9-2)	0.9799	LSU (9-2)	1.5450	LSU (9-2)	1.1828
12	Georgia (9-2)	0.9777	Iowa (9-2)	1.5216	Tennessee (9-3)	1.1600
13	Tennessee (9-3)	0.9704	Tennessee (9-3)	1.4943	Louisville (10-1)	1.1523
14	Michigan (9-2)	0.9651	Texas A&M (7-4)	1.4795	Iowa (9-2)	1.1497
15	Virginia Tech (10-2)	0.9570	Michigan (9-2)	1.4496	Michigan (9-2)	1.1379
16	Louisville (10-1)	0.9567	Louisville (10-1)	1.4306	Miami FL (8-3)	1.0039
17	Oklahoma St (7-4)	0.9559	Miami FL (8-3)	1.3709	Texas A&M (7-4)	0.9815
18	Texas Tech (7-4)	0.9505	Wisconsin (9-2)	1.2847	Wisconsin (9-2)	0.8961
19	Miami FL (8-3)	0.9490	Oklahoma St (7-4)	1.2484	Notre Dame (6-5)	0.8512
20	Oregon St (6-5)	0.9475	Oregon St (6-5)	1.2387	Oregon St (6-5)	0.7774
21	Virginia (8-3)	0.9379	Texas Tech (7-4)	1.2170	Oklahoma St (7-4)	0.6959
22	Wisconsin (9-2)	0.9374	Florida St (8-3)	1.1825	Florida St (8-3)	0.6896
23	Colorado (7-5)	0.9329	Virginia (8-3)	1.1687	Texas Tech (7-4)	0.6731
24	Florida St (8-3)	0.9265	Notre Dame (6-5)	1.1641	New Mexico (7-4)	0.6291
25	New Mexico (7-4)	0.9234	New Mexico (7-4)	1.1040	Pittsburgh (8-3)	0.6164
26	Notre Dame (6-5)	0.9160	Colorado (7-5)	1.0966	Virginia (8-3)	0.5859
27	UTEP (8-3)	0.9151	UTEP (8-3)	1.0738	Brigham Young (5-6)	0.5826
28	UCLA (6-5)	0.9121	UCLA (6-5)	1.0229	Colorado (7-5)	0.5554
29	Purdue (7-4)	0.8956	Pittsburgh (8-3)	0.9780	UCLA (6-5)	0.5526
30	Ohio State (7-4)	0.8930	Brigham Young (5-6)	0.9627	UTEP (8-3)	0.5428
31	Fresno St (8-3)	0.8929	Purdue (7-4)	0.9598	Boston College (8-3)	0.5219
32	Florida (7-4)	0.8919	Ohio State (7-4)	0.9436	Washington St (5-6)	0.4815
33	Brigham Young (5-6)	0.8885	Florida (7-4)	0.9405	Purdue (7-4)	0.4749
34	Pittsburgh (8-3)	0.8876	Fresno St (8-3)	0.9194	Ohio State (7-4)	0.4623
35	North Carolina (6-5)	0.8840	Boston College (8-3)	0.9189	Arizona (3-8)	0.4480
36	Navy (9-2)	0.8828	North Carolina (6-5)	0.9047	Fresno St (8-3)	0.4190
37	Memphis (8-3)	0.8816	Navy (9-2)	0.9047	North Carolina (6-5)	0.4150
38	Washington St (5-6)	0.8802	Washington St (5-6)	0.8883	Oregon (5-6)	0.4069
39	Boston College (8-3)	0.8771	Memphis (8-3)	0.8690	Navy (9-2)	0.4031
40	Arkansas (5-6)	0.8755	Oregon (5-6)	0.8584	Florida (7-4)	0.3740
41	Iowa St (6-5)	0.8742	West Virginia (8-3)	0.8415	Stanford (4-7)	0.3731
42	Oregon (5-6)	0.8740	Alabama-Birmingham (7-4)	0.8215	North Carolina St (5-6)	0.3533
43	West Virginia (8-3)	0.8695	Arkansas (5-6)	0.8123	Nebraska (5-6)	0.3522
44	Wyoming (6-5)	0.8672	Clemson (6-5)	0.8083	Clemson (6-5)	0.3487
45	Louisiana Tech (6-6)	0.8670	Stanford (4-7)	0.7954	West Virginia (8-3)	0.3403
46	Alabama (6-5)	0.8661	Arizona (3-8)	0.7936	Syracuse (6-5)	0.3341
47	South Carolina (6-5)	0.8657	Louisiana Tech (6-6)	0.7870	Memphis (8-3)	0.3249
48	Alabama-Birmingham (7-4)	0.8654	Alabama (6-5)	0.7861	Alabama-Birmingham (7-4)	0.3130
49	Georgia Tech (6-5)	0.8648	Iowa St (6-5)	0.7809	Louisiana Tech (6-6)	0.3012
50	Clemson (6-5)	0.8628	Wyoming (6-5)	0.7754	Colorado St (4-7)	0.3008
51	Northwestern (6-6)	0.8622	Nebraska (5-6)	0.7668	Air Force (5-6)	0.3000
52	Stanford (4-7)	0.8616	Syracuse (6-5)	0.7657	Bowling Green (8-3)	0.2937
53	Nebraska (5-6)	0.8583	South Carolina (6-5)	0.7657	Alabama (6-5)	0.2890
54	Southern Miss (6-5)	0.8536	Northwestern (6-6)	0.7653	Wyoming (6-5)	0.2875
55	Minnesota (6-5)	0.8536	Georgia Tech (6-5)	0.7650	Hawai`i (7-5)	0.2815
56	Syracuse (6-5)	0.8514	Southern Miss (6-5)	0.7466	Arkansas (5-6)	0.2776
57	Hawai`i (7-5)	0.8487	Hawai`i (7-5)	0.7414	Baylor (3-8)	0.2717
58	Kansas (4-7)	0.8474	Air Force (5-6)	0.7321	Iowa St (6-5)	0.2675
59	Arizona (3-8)	0.8474	Minnesota (6-5)	0.7246	Northwestern (6-6)	0.2595
60	North Texas (7-4)	0.8468	Cincinnati (6-5)	0.7116	Southern Miss (6-5)	0.2594
61	Cincinnati (6-5)	0.8454	North Carolina St (5-6)	0.6966	Kansas (4-7)	0.2407
62	Air Force (5-6)	0.8452	Kansas (4-7)	0.6911	Georgia Tech (6-5)	0.2373
63	Missouri (5-6)	0.8382	North Texas (7-4)	0.6889	Connecticut (7-4)	0.2366
64	Colorado St (4-7)	0.8352	Missouri (5-6)	0.6833	Missouri (5-6)	0.2283
65	Troy St (7-4)	0.8344	Baylor (3-8)	0.6820	South Carolina (6-5)	0.2195
66	North Carolina St (5-6)	0.8331	Colorado St (4-7)	0.6795	Minnesota (6-5)	0.2174
67	Connecticut (7-4)	0.8321	Connecticut (7-4)	0.6512	Kansas St (4-7)	0.2136
68	Kansas St (4-7)	0.8320	Bowling Green (8-3)	0.6484	Cincinnati (6-5)	0.2097
69	Baylor (3-8)	0.8312	Troy St (7-4)	0.6355	Michigan St (5-7)	0.2073
70	Toledo (9-3)	0.8257	Kansas St (4-7)	0.6250	Toledo (9-3)	0.2008
71	Mississippi (4-7)	0.8232	Toledo (9-3)	0.6225	Maryland (5-6)	0.1917
72	Bowling Green (8-3)	0.8197	Michigan St (5-7)	0.6168	North Texas (7-4)	0.1890
73	TCU (5-6)	0.8189	Mississippi (4-7)	0.6051	Tulane (5-6)	0.1761
74	Michigan St (5-7)	0.8162	Maryland (5-6)	0.6036	Mississippi (4-7)	0.1678
75	San Diego St (4-7)	0.8161	TCU (5-6)	0.5933	Troy St (7-4)	0.1674
76	Maryland (5-6)	0.8130	Tulane (5-6)	0.5829	San Diego St (4-7)	0.1670
77	New Mexico St (5-6)	0.8113	San Diego St (4-7)	0.5760	Mississippi St (3-8)	0.1596
78	Northern Illinois (8-3)	0.8056	New Mexico St (5-6)	0.5499	Northern Illinois (8-3)	0.1563
79	Miami OH (8-4)	0.8035	Northern Illinois (8-3)	0.5478	TCU (5-6)	0.1500
80	Tulane (5-6)	0.8017	Miami OH (8-4)	0.5345	UL-Monroe (5-6)	0.1485
81	Penn St (4-7)	0.7894	Mississippi St (3-8)	0.5162	Washington (1-10)	0.1473
82	Wake Forest (4-7)	0.7873	Wake Forest (4-7)	0.5099	Tulsa (4-8)	0.1461
83	Tulsa (4-8)	0.7850	Tulsa (4-8)	0.5021	UNLV (2-9)	0.1413
84	South Florida (4-7)	0.7844	Houston (3-8)	0.4839	Houston (3-8)	0.1360
85	UL-Monroe (5-6)	0.7831	South Florida (4-7)	0.4834	Wake Forest (4-7)	0.1304
86	SMU (3-8)	0.7814	UL-Monroe (5-6)	0.4812	New Mexico St (5-6)	0.1188
87	Mississippi St (3-8)	0.7787	Penn St (4-7)	0.4736	Miami OH (8-4)	0.1167
88	Houston (3-8)	0.7779	UNLV (2-9)	0.4719	Nevada (5-7)	0.1067
89	Marshall (6-5)	0.7750	Washington (1-10)	0.4677	Kentucky (2-9)	0.1015
90	Nevada (5-7)	0.7731	Rice (3-8)	0.4570	South Florida (4-7)	0.1012
91	UNLV (2-9)	0.7709	SMU (3-8)	0.4553	Indiana (3-8)	0.0978
92	Rice (3-8)	0.7706	Kentucky (2-9)	0.4473	Rice (3-8)	0.0963
93	Washington (1-10)	0.7700	Nevada (5-7)	0.4450	Utah St (3-8)	0.0958
94	Illinois (3-8)	0.7699	Marshall (6-5)	0.4395	SMU (3-8)	0.0951
95	Rutgers (4-7)	0.7670	Indiana (3-8)	0.4289	Penn St (4-7)	0.0782
96	Middle Tenn St (5-6)	0.7666	Illinois (3-8)	0.4178	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	0.0769
97	Kentucky (2-9)	0.7636	Rutgers (4-7)	0.4167	Middle Tenn St (5-6)	0.0736
98	Indiana (3-8)	0.7601	Middle Tenn St (5-6)	0.4068	Duke (2-9)	0.0727
99	Duke (2-9)	0.7561	Duke (2-9)	0.4043	Rutgers (4-7)	0.0685
100	Akron (6-5)	0.7529	Utah St (3-8)	0.3953	Marshall (6-5)	0.0653
101	Vanderbilt (2-9)	0.7511	Vanderbilt (2-9)	0.3889	Arkansas St (3-8)	0.0651
102	Utah St (3-8)	0.7497	Arkansas St (3-8)	0.3708	San Jose St (2-9)	0.0649
103	Arkansas St (3-8)	0.7440	Akron (6-5)	0.3680	Temple (2-9)	0.0628
104	UL-Lafayette (4-7)	0.7434	Temple (2-9)	0.3512	Idaho (3-9)	0.0586
105	Temple (2-9)	0.7354	Army (2-9)	0.3484	Illinois (3-8)	0.0555
106	Idaho (3-9)	0.7334	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	0.3459	Vanderbilt (2-9)	0.0547
107	Army (2-9)	0.7302	San Jose St (2-9)	0.3427	Army (2-9)	0.0510
108	San Jose St (2-9)	0.7290	UL-Lafayette (4-7)	0.3405	UL-Lafayette (4-7)	0.0493
109	Non-Division IA (XXX-XXX)	0.7279	Idaho (3-9)	0.3364	Akron (6-5)	0.0413
110	Kent St (5-6)	0.7257	East Carolina (2-9)	0.3178	East Carolina (2-9)	0.0407
111	East Carolina (2-9)	0.7197	Kent St (5-6)	0.3134	Ohio U. (4-7)	0.0372
112	Ohio U. (4-7)	0.7153	Ohio U. (4-7)	0.2925	Kent St (5-6)	0.0363
113	Eastern Michigan (4-7)	0.6941	Central Michigan (4-7)	0.2526	Central Michigan (4-7)	0.0271
114	Central Michigan (4-7)	0.6922	Eastern Michigan (4-7)	0.2442	Western Michigan (1-10)	0.0206
115	Ball St (2-9)	0.6682	Ball St (2-9)	0.2116	Eastern Michigan (4-7)	0.0181
116	Buffalo (2-9)	0.6565	Western Michigan (1-10)	0.2041	Ball St (2-9)	0.0140
117	Western Michigan (1-10)	0.6521	Buffalo (2-9)	0.1825	Buffalo (2-9)	0.0096
118	Central Florida (0-11)	0.6264	Central Florida (0-11)	0.1602	Central Florida (0-11)	0.0082

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