Saturday, January 16, 2010

Final 2009 Season Rankings

We have finally run the RWFL calculation on the season that ended over a week ago with Alabama's victory over Texas. Of course, that left us with two undefeated FBS teams: Alabama and Boise State. Unfortunately, the nature of the BCS is that we'll never see the last game necessary to eliminate one of these teams from the ranks of the undefeated.

The RWFL-based bowl predictions were magnificently bad this year. I haven't analyzed anything in depth in the discrepancy between what was predicted and what happened. Of course, there are many reasons why teams may do better or worse in bowl games than they "should" in whatever sense one takes that word here. However, particularly per my interest in communities in networks, I'm always keen to see if there are conference-based patterns in the mispredictions. Last year, I recall that the bowl games appeared to indicate that the RWFL had left the Big 12 under-ranked. This year, that conference may have been the Big Ten, with many RWFL predictions of Big 10 bowl defeats that went awry. But that is admittedly just a first impression.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Thursday January 7th 2010:
1. Alabama (14-0) [1.8099]
2. Florida (13-1) [1.3544]
3. Boise St (14-0) [1.0583]
4. Cincinnati (12-1) [1.0386]
5. Texas (13-1) [1.0197]
6. Ohio State (11-2) [0.9994]
7. TCU (12-1) [0.9500]
8. Iowa (11-2) [0.9438]
9. Georgia Tech (11-3) [0.8511]
10. Oregon (10-3) [0.8504]
11. Virginia Tech (10-3) [0.8148]
12. Penn State (11-2) [0.7775]
13. LSU (9-4) [0.7300]
14. Brigham Young (11-2) [0.7263]
15. Pittsburgh (10-3) [0.7029]
16. Southern Cal (9-4) [0.6760]
17. Miami FL (9-4) [0.6628]
18. Wisconsin (10-3) [0.6541]
19. Mississippi (9-4) [0.6376]
20. Georgia (8-5) [0.6211]
21. West Virginia (9-4) [0.6155]
22. Arkansas (8-5) [0.6150]
23. Auburn (8-5) [0.6058]
24. Clemson (9-5) [0.5853]
25. Utah (10-3) [0.5713]
26. Arizona (8-5) [0.5699]
27. North Carolina (8-5) [0.5604]
28. Oklahoma St (9-4) [0.5513]
29. Nebraska (10-4) [0.5486]
30. Stanford (8-5) [0.5434]
31. South Carolina (7-6) [0.5359]
32. Florida St (7-6) [0.5327]
33. Oregon St (8-5) [0.5163]
34. Tennessee (7-6) [0.5073]
35. California (8-5) [0.4993]
36. Texas Tech (9-4) [0.4913]
37. Central Michigan (12-2) [0.4882]
38. Navy (10-4) [0.4847]
39. Connecticut (8-5) [0.4834]
40. Oklahoma (8-5) [0.4809]
41. Kentucky (7-6) [0.4682]
42. Northwestern (8-5) [0.4641]
43. Boston College (8-5) [0.4539]
44. Houston (10-4) [0.4534]
45. Rutgers (9-4) [0.4530]
46. South Florida (8-5) [0.4430]
47. Mississippi St (5-7) [0.4403]
48. East Carolina (9-5) [0.4392]
49. Missouri (8-5) [0.4136]
50. UCLA (7-6) [0.4120]
51. Washington (5-7) [0.3980]
52. Troy (9-4) [0.3955]
53. Fresno St (8-5) [0.3932]
54. Notre Dame (6-6) [0.3923]
55. Minnesota (6-7) [0.3874]
56. Air Force (8-5) [0.3815]
57. Nevada (8-5) [0.3750]
58. Middle Tennessee St (10-3) [0.3740]
59. SMU (8-5) [0.3659]
60. Central Florida (8-5) [0.3550]
61. Temple (9-4) [0.3482]
62. Wyoming (7-6) [0.3470]
63. Purdue (5-7) [0.3419]
64. Idaho (8-5) [0.3362]
65. Michigan St (6-7) [0.3358]
66. Iowa St (7-6) [0.3240]
67. Wake Forest (5-7) [0.3215]
68. Texas A&M (6-7) [0.3186]
69. Marshall (7-6) [0.3166]
70. North Carolina St (5-7) [0.3096]
71. Ohio U. (9-5) [0.2929]
72. Syracuse (4-8) [0.2839]
73. Kansas St (6-6) [0.2823]
74. Bowling Green (7-6) [0.2727]
75. Michigan (5-7) [0.2610]
76. Hawai`i (6-7) [0.2602]
77. Virginia (3-9) [0.2576]
78. Southern Miss (7-6) [0.2571]
79. Kansas (5-7) [0.2565]
80. UNLV (5-7) [0.2539]
81. Duke (5-7) [0.2534]
82. Arizona St (4-8) [0.2520]
83. Baylor (4-8) [0.2359]
84. Louisville (4-8) [0.2348]
85. Illinois (3-9) [0.2261]
86. Indiana (4-8) [0.2197]
87. Utah St (4-8) [0.2140]
88. Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) [0.2116]
89. Colorado (3-9) [0.2102]
90. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6) [0.2080]
91. Louisiana Tech (4-8) [0.2078]
92. Northern Illinois (7-6) [0.2076]
93. Alabama-Birmingham (5-7) [0.2075]
94. San Diego St (4-8) [0.1991]
95. Colorado St (3-9) [0.1891]
96. Tulsa (5-7) [0.1885]
97. Vanderbilt (2-10) [0.1876]
98. UTEP (4-8) [0.1847]
99. Maryland (2-10) [0.1810]
100. Toledo (5-7) [0.1802]
101. Florida Int'l (3-9) [0.1792]
102. Florida Atlantic (5-7) [0.1776]
103. Buffalo (5-7) [0.1703]
104. Washington St (1-11) [0.1631]
105. New Mexico St (3-10) [0.1517]
106. Tulane (3-9) [0.1502]
107. San Jose St (2-10) [0.1459]
108. Kent St (5-7) [0.1429]
109. Army (5-7) [0.1389]
110. Western Michigan (5-7) [0.1305]
111. Arkansas St (4-8) [0.1270]
112. Rice (2-10) [0.1188]
113. New Mexico (1-11) [0.1147]
114. Memphis (2-10) [0.1090]
115. Miami OH (1-11) [0.1041]
116. Akron (3-9) [0.1037]
117. North Texas (2-10) [0.0886]
118. Ball St (2-10) [0.0652]
119. Eastern Michigan (0-12) [0.0021]
120. Western Kentucky (0-12) [0.0003]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.7094
BigEast 0.5319
Big10 0.5101
Pac10 0.4880
ACC 0.4820
Big12 0.4277
MWC 0.4148
WAC 0.3492
FBSInd 0.3386
CUSA 0.2622
SunBelt 0.1957
MAC 0.1930
Non-FBS -0.0830