Sunday, December 6, 2009

Rankings through December 5th

Every time you changed the channel yesterday, there was another wild game on. Alabama rolled Florida. Texas survived last-second confusion and won on a last-second FG. Cincy came back from 21 down and won by the difference of Pitt's botched extra point attempt following a perhaps too-early TD. GT won a back-and-forth match with Clemson. And Fresno State beat Illinois on a stretch into the endzone in the last seconds, followed by a fluke tip drill two-point conversion. Okay, so that last one has zero implication for the BCS bowls, and most of us probably only saw it on SportsCenter; but it was crazy.

Cincy and TCU fans are probably steaming this morning that Texas got that second back. And Texas will probably lose a few votes in the BCS Standings, but the conventional wisdom seems to be that their lead over TCU last week was so large that it won't matter: Texas will play Alabama for the championship.

TCU will get the non-AQ group automatic qualification. The three remaining BCS at-large bids are up to the bowls themselves, but it seems certain that Florida will get one, and it seems likely that Boise State and either Iowa or Penn State will get the other. That is, unless a bowl game chooses to go to a three-loss team, it's just a matter of which team goes where; Brad Edwards at ESPN concisely breaks the process down and makes predictions.

Finally, on to our own rankings. Note the figure below the rank ordering of the 120 teams, because it says something interesting this week. Specifically, it plots the order of the top teams under varying the single "p value" bias parameter in our ranking system, which is a highly imperfect proxy for exploring other ranking systems that work under the same limiting assumptions (notably no margin of victory and no information about dates of games). While Alabama remains the undisputed #1 as the bias varies between its allowed values, Cincy, Florida, and Texas each make appearances at #2.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday December 5th:
1. Alabama (13-0) [1.6882]
2. Florida (12-1) [1.2422]
3. Cincinnati (12-0) [1.2000]
4. Texas (13-0) [1.1248]
5. TCU (12-0) [1.0198]
6. Oregon (10-2) [1.0023]
7. Georgia Tech (11-2) [0.9651]
8. Boise St (13-0) [0.9495]
9. Virginia Tech (9-3) [0.8073]
10. Ohio State (10-2) [0.7910]
11. LSU (9-3) [0.7865]
12. Iowa (10-2) [0.7746]
13. Miami FL (9-3) [0.7666]
14. West Virginia (9-3) [0.6841]
15. Arizona (8-4) [0.6710]
16. Southern Cal (8-4) [0.6678]
17. Stanford (8-4) [0.6546]
18. North Carolina (8-4) [0.6454]
19. Penn State (10-2) [0.6447]
20. Pittsburgh (9-3) [0.6344]
21. Oregon St (8-4) [0.6244]
22. Brigham Young (10-2) [0.6235]
23. Georgia (7-5) [0.6216]
24. Oklahoma St (9-3) [0.6175]
25. California (8-4) [0.6021]
26. Mississippi (8-4) [0.5896]
27. South Carolina (7-5) [0.5764]
28. Clemson (8-5) [0.5750]
29. Arkansas (7-5) [0.5734]
30. Auburn (7-5) [0.5696]
31. Tennessee (7-5) [0.5425]
32. Wisconsin (9-3) [0.5406]
33. Houston (10-3) [0.5280]
34. East Carolina (9-4) [0.5162]
35. Kentucky (7-5) [0.4978]
36. Utah (9-3) [0.4977]
37. Nebraska (9-4) [0.4903]
38. Boston College (8-4) [0.4878]
39. Florida St (6-6) [0.4825]
40. Texas Tech (8-4) [0.4599]
41. Missouri (8-4) [0.4591]
42. Central Michigan (11-2) [0.4558]
43. Northwestern (8-4) [0.4454]
44. Connecticut (7-5) [0.4429]
45. Oklahoma (7-5) [0.4380]
46. Washington (5-7) [0.4369]
47. South Florida (7-5) [0.4368]
48. Mississippi St (5-7) [0.4327]
49. Troy (9-3) [0.4211]
50. Central Florida (8-4) [0.4205]
51. Fresno St (8-4) [0.4197]
52. UCLA (6-6) [0.4193]
53. Rutgers (8-4) [0.4184]
54. Navy (8-4) [0.4175]
55. Nevada (8-4) [0.4011]
56. Notre Dame (6-6) [0.3973]
57. Minnesota (6-6) [0.3862]
58. Temple (9-3) [0.3607]
59. SMU (7-5) [0.3477]
60. Middle Tennessee St (9-3) [0.3437]
61. Wake Forest (5-7) [0.3422]
62. Michigan St (6-6) [0.3296]
63. Texas A&M (6-6) [0.3279]
64. Ohio U. (9-4) [0.3254]
65. Air Force (7-5) [0.3141]
66. North Carolina St (5-7) [0.3131]
67. Purdue (5-7) [0.3102]
68. Marshall (6-6) [0.3034]
69. Wyoming (6-6) [0.3017]
70. Idaho (7-5) [0.3011]
71. Southern Miss (7-5) [0.2985]
72. Bowling Green (7-5) [0.2968]
73. Arizona St (4-8) [0.2795]
74. Iowa St (6-6) [0.2771]
75. Virginia (3-9) [0.2765]
76. Syracuse (4-8) [0.2763]
77. Kansas St (6-6) [0.2736]
78. Duke (5-7) [0.2680]
79. Kansas (5-7) [0.2590]
80. UNLV (5-7) [0.2453]
81. Hawai`i (6-7) [0.2430]
82. Baylor (4-8) [0.2417]
83. Louisville (4-8) [0.2379]
84. Michigan (5-7) [0.2319]
85. Alabama-Birmingham (5-7) [0.2182]
86. Illinois (3-9) [0.2168]
87. Louisiana-Monroe (6-6) [0.2137]
88. Colorado (3-9) [0.2120]
89. Northern Illinois (7-5) [0.2065]
90. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6) [0.2039]
91. Utah St (4-8) [0.1998]
92. Louisiana Tech (4-8) [0.1984]
93. UTEP (4-8) [0.1947]
94. Indiana (4-8) [0.1935]
95. Vanderbilt (2-10) [0.1921]
96. Tulsa (5-7) [0.1912]
97. San Diego St (4-8) [0.1860]
98. Washington St (1-11) [0.1816]
99. Colorado St (3-9) [0.1813]
100. Maryland (2-10) [0.1808]
101. Buffalo (5-7) [0.1735]
102. Florida Atlantic (5-7) [0.1715]
103. Toledo (5-7) [0.1697]
104. Florida Int'l (3-9) [0.1677]
105. Tulane (3-9) [0.1555]
106. Kent St (5-7) [0.1471]
107. San Jose St (2-10) [0.1420]
108. New Mexico St (3-10) [0.1388]
109. Army (5-6) [0.1341]
110. Rice (2-10) [0.1262]
111. Western Michigan (5-7) [0.1256]
112. Memphis (2-10) [0.1172]
113. Arkansas St (4-8) [0.1162]
114. Miami OH (1-11) [0.1088]
115. New Mexico (1-11) [0.1048]
116. Akron (3-9) [0.1004]
117. North Texas (2-10) [0.0838]
118. Ball St (2-10) [0.0634]
119. Eastern Michigan (0-12) [-0.0003]
120. Western Kentucky (0-12) [-0.0032]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.6927
Pac10 0.5540
BigEast 0.5414
ACC 0.5092
Big10 0.4422
Big12 0.4317
MWC 0.3860
WAC 0.3326
FBSInd 0.3163
CUSA 0.2848
MAC 0.1949
SunBelt 0.1909
Non-FBS -0.0829

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