Sunday, November 1, 2009

Rankings through October 31st

The undefeated teams all won again, with Iowa adding to their catalog of close calls. That said, you have to give the Hawkeyes credit: wins are wins. We have a lot of football left to play this season, so virtually anything can happen. Certainly Iowa has some big games left on their schedule. However, if Iowa continues to win and there's any BCS controversy down the stretch, I'd expect the off-season BCS discussions to include reconsideration of the rules which prevent computer rankings from including margin of victory.

In the meantime, I'd be surprised if Iowa falls much in this week's official BCS Standings, if at all, since they were already only #8 in both polls last week. Oregon, after their impressive victory over USC, is the obvious candidate to potentially pass Iowa. TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati were each already ahead of Iowa in the polls, but behind Iowa in the total standings because of the computer ranking component, and it's hard for me to see how that will change.

Speaking of the remaining BCS busters, we have double intrigue waiting for the official BCS Standings this week. First, I'm interested to see whether BCS#6 TCU stays ahead of BCS#7 Boise State in this week's Standings. Boise State, already ahead of TCU in both polls last week, is likely to get a small boost in the computer rankings from the follow-on effect of Oregon's victory over USC, given Boise State's season-opening win over Oregon. Will it be enough to pass TCU in the official Standings? Second, we eagerly wait to see the relative rankings between Oregon and Boise State. The Ducks will undoubtedly get a big boost across all the BCS components this week, but will it be enough to pass the Broncos, the only team to beat them on the field this season?

Using the random walker rankings across various p values as an imperfect proxy for other rankings, the closeness of these questions regarding Boise State are evident in the figure presented here below the p=0.75 rankings. Boise State is ranked higher than TCU for p > 0.7 (approximately) and higher than Oregon for p > 0.8. In other words, very slight changes in the methodology (e.g., changing the p value) can reasonably have big effects in the rank ordering in this situation.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday October 31st:
1. Florida (8-0) [1.5226]
2. Iowa (9-0) [1.3781]
3. Alabama (8-0) [1.3288]
4. Oregon (7-1) [1.2656]
5. Boise St (8-0) [1.1549]
6. Texas (8-0) [1.1480]
7. TCU (8-0) [1.0819]
8. Cincinnati (8-0) [1.0588]
9. Georgia Tech (8-1) [1.0200]
10. LSU (7-1) [0.9699]
11. Southern Cal (6-2) [0.9276]
12. Penn State (8-1) [0.8159]
13. Miami FL (6-2) [0.7950]
14. Arizona (5-2) [0.7487]
15. Houston (7-1) [0.7412]
16. Pittsburgh (7-1) [0.7346]
17. Virginia Tech (5-3) [0.7173]
18. Notre Dame (6-2) [0.7120]
19. Wisconsin (6-2) [0.6726]
20. Utah (7-1) [0.6687]
21. California (6-2) [0.6666]
22. Ohio State (7-2) [0.6604]
23. Oklahoma St (6-2) [0.6069]
24. Clemson (5-3) [0.5981]
25. South Florida (6-2) [0.5667]
26. Auburn (6-3) [0.5600]
27. Washington (3-5) [0.5577]
28. West Virginia (6-2) [0.5328]
29. Oregon St (5-3) [0.5319]
30. South Carolina (6-3) [0.5292]
31. Brigham Young (6-2) [0.5189]
32. Georgia (4-4) [0.5091]
33. Boston College (6-3) [0.5045]
34. Stanford (5-3) [0.5002]
35. Tennessee (4-4) [0.4980]
36. Troy (6-2) [0.4887]
37. Kentucky (4-4) [0.4732]
38. North Carolina (5-3) [0.4711]
39. Florida St (4-4) [0.4556]
40. Arkansas (4-4) [0.4500]
41. Minnesota (5-4) [0.4463]
42. Idaho (7-2) [0.4406]
43. Oklahoma (5-3) [0.4341]
44. Texas Tech (6-3) [0.4313]
45. Mississippi (5-3) [0.4245]
46. Fresno St (5-3) [0.4179]
47. Central Michigan (7-2) [0.4109]
48. Missouri (5-3) [0.4108]
49. Rutgers (6-2) [0.4092]
50. Temple (6-2) [0.4047]
51. Mississippi St (4-5) [0.4026]
52. Michigan (5-4) [0.4012]
53. Navy (6-3) [0.3883]
54. UCLA (3-5) [0.3765]
55. Nebraska (5-3) [0.3680]
56. Kansas (5-3) [0.3633]
57. Texas A&M (5-3) [0.3633]
58. Michigan St (4-5) [0.3583]
59. Marshall (5-3) [0.3572]
60. Nevada (5-3) [0.3554]
61. Arizona St (4-4) [0.3493]
62. Duke (5-3) [0.3388]
63. SMU (4-4) [0.3271]
64. Virginia (3-5) [0.3258]
65. Iowa St (5-4) [0.3229]
66. Wake Forest (4-5) [0.3193]
67. Purdue (3-6) [0.3192]
68. East Carolina (5-3) [0.3141]
69. Kansas St (5-4) [0.3081]
70. Air Force (5-4) [0.3060]
71. Connecticut (4-4) [0.2868]
72. UTEP (3-5) [0.2821]
73. Northern Illinois (5-3) [0.2799]
74. Syracuse (3-5) [0.2797]
75. Northwestern (5-4) [0.2788]
76. Ohio U. (6-3) [0.2776]
77. Middle Tennessee St (5-3) [0.2723]
78. Bowling Green (3-5) [0.2686]
79. Louisiana-Monroe (4-4) [0.2655]
80. Indiana (4-5) [0.2628]
81. Wyoming (4-4) [0.2608]
82. Colorado St (3-6) [0.2544]
83. North Carolina St (3-5) [0.2542]
84. Southern Miss (5-4) [0.2541]
85. Louisville (3-5) [0.2489]
86. San Jose St (1-6) [0.2317]
87. Washington St (1-7) [0.2299]
88. San Diego St (4-4) [0.2258]
89. Kent St (5-4) [0.2189]
90. Colorado (2-6) [0.2176]
91. Maryland (2-6) [0.2113]
92. Central Florida (4-3) [0.2107]
93. Tulsa (4-4) [0.2093]
94. Louisiana-Lafayette (4-4) [0.2077]
95. UNLV (3-6) [0.2069]
96. Illinois (2-6) [0.2042]
97. Alabama-Birmingham (3-5) [0.2037]
98. Toledo (4-5) [0.2018]
99. Baylor (3-5) [0.1968]
100. Western Michigan (4-5) [0.1901]
101. Buffalo (3-5) [0.1798]
102. Tulane (2-6) [0.1780]
103. Hawai`i (2-6) [0.1666]
104. Arkansas St (2-5) [0.1647]
105. Vanderbilt (2-7) [0.1580]
106. Utah St (2-6) [0.1555]
107. Louisiana Tech (3-5) [0.1539]
108. Florida Int'l (2-6) [0.1537]
109. New Mexico St (3-6) [0.1476]
110. Miami OH (1-8) [0.1444]
111. Florida Atlantic (2-5) [0.1443]
112. Army (3-5) [0.1292]
113. North Texas (2-6) [0.1264]
114. Memphis (2-6) [0.1161]
115. Akron (1-7) [0.0875]
116. Ball St (1-8) [0.0440]
117. Rice (0-8) [0.0391]
118. New Mexico (0-8) [0.0277]
119. Eastern Michigan (0-8) [0.0183]
120. Western Kentucky (0-8) [0.0063]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.6522
Pac10 0.6154
Big10 0.5271
BigEast 0.5147
ACC 0.5009
Big12 0.4309
FBSInd 0.4098
MWC 0.3946
WAC 0.3582
CUSA 0.2694
MAC 0.2097
SunBelt 0.2033
Non-FBS -0.0854

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