Sunday, November 22, 2009

Rankings through November 21st

Another week of wins at the top of last week's BCS Standings. The most prominent loss near the top of the Standings was LSU's confused clock management thriller at Ole Miss. Of course, other losses by Notre Dame, Kansas and Michigan make big news because coaching jobs might be on the line, but we're now most interested in the BCS Bowl bids here.

All signs continue to point to a probable Alabama/Florida v. Texas National Championship Game, though of course that might depend on teams continuing to win. That said, it's becoming conceivable that Texas could lose a game down the stretch and still appear in the National Championship (the earliest compelling argument I heard for this was on Slate's Hang Up and Listen podcast). So I continue to be most interested right now in whether Boise State will get a BCS at-large bid this year.

Without repeating yesterday's post, the LSU loss possibly hurts Boise State a little, simply because LSU wasn't going to get a BCS Bowl bid anyway (assuming Florida and Alabama get them, with only two allowed per conference). So LSU will fall from their current BCS#8 spot, and someone else who might be in the running for an at-large bid will be able to make a stronger case. Maybe I'm splitting hairs here worrying on Boise State's behalf about one loss by LSU. But there could be a lot of teams making a respectable case for an at-large bid if they don't win their conference championships: Texas plays Nebraska, GT faces Clemson, Cincy gets Pitt, and Oregon hosts Oregon State in the now de facto Pac-10 championship game. Again, we take it as a given that the loser of Florida/Alabama will get an at-large bid, and we assume that TCU will get the non-AQ-group automatic berth if they beat New Mexico next week. That leaves two at-large bids remaining, some of which could disappear to losers of the conference championship games, or even to the Big Ten.

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday November 21st:
1. Alabama (11-0) [1.3873]
2. Florida (11-0) [1.2604]
3. Cincinnati (10-0) [1.2062]
4. Georgia Tech (10-1) [1.1521]
5. TCU (11-0) [1.1169]
6. Texas (11-0) [1.0729]
7. Oregon (9-2) [0.9538]
8. Boise St (11-0) [0.9062]
9. Pittsburgh (9-1) [0.8839]
10. Ohio State (10-2) [0.8350]
11. Virginia Tech (8-3) [0.7996]
12. Miami FL (8-3) [0.7874]
13. Iowa (10-2) [0.7809]
14. North Carolina (8-3) [0.7454]
15. Southern Cal (7-3) [0.7449]
16. Clemson (8-3) [0.7240]
17. Penn State (10-2) [0.6923]
18. California (8-3) [0.6850]
19. Oklahoma St (9-2) [0.6742]
20. Oregon St (8-3) [0.6731]
21. LSU (8-3) [0.6490]
22. Stanford (7-4) [0.6206]
23. Mississippi (8-3) [0.6025]
24. Houston (9-2) [0.5948]
25. Arizona (6-4) [0.5763]
26. Arkansas (7-4) [0.5670]
27. West Virginia (7-3) [0.5627]
28. Utah (9-2) [0.5575]
29. South Florida (7-3) [0.5547]
30. Brigham Young (9-2) [0.5481]
31. Wisconsin (8-3) [0.5401]
32. Florida St (6-5) [0.5242]
33. Auburn (7-4) [0.5063]
34. Navy (8-3) [0.5059]
35. Kentucky (7-4) [0.5029]
36. Boston College (7-4) [0.4981]
37. South Carolina (6-5) [0.4919]
38. Georgia (6-5) [0.4811]
39. Nebraska (8-3) [0.4753]
40. Rutgers (7-3) [0.4727]
41. Northwestern (8-4) [0.4598]
42. Temple (9-2) [0.4448]
43. Tennessee (6-5) [0.4446]
44. Notre Dame (6-5) [0.4387]
45. Missouri (7-4) [0.4333]
46. UCLA (6-5) [0.4262]
47. Texas Tech (7-4) [0.4256]
48. East Carolina (7-4) [0.4150]
49. Central Florida (7-4) [0.4123]
50. Minnesota (6-6) [0.4084]
51. Central Michigan (9-2) [0.4007]
52. Troy (8-3) [0.3985]
53. Connecticut (5-5) [0.3958]
54. Nevada (8-3) [0.3955]
55. Fresno St (7-4) [0.3857]
56. Washington (3-7) [0.3645]
57. Mississippi St (4-7) [0.3637]
58. Oklahoma (6-5) [0.3586]
59. Michigan St (6-6) [0.3419]
60. Wake Forest (4-7) [0.3372]
61. Southern Miss (7-4) [0.3362]
62. Marshall (6-5) [0.3341]
63. Idaho (7-4) [0.3291]
64. SMU (6-5) [0.3276]
65. Middle Tennessee St (8-3) [0.3266]
66. Purdue (5-7) [0.3241]
67. Air Force (7-5) [0.3215]
68. Syracuse (4-7) [0.3196]
69. Virginia (3-8) [0.3158]
70. Duke (5-6) [0.3154]
71. Texas A&M (6-5) [0.3116]
72. Ohio U. (8-3) [0.3014]
73. North Carolina St (4-7) [0.2844]
74. Wyoming (5-6) [0.2841]
75. Iowa St (6-6) [0.2825]
76. Arizona St (4-7) [0.2815]
77. Kansas (5-6) [0.2761]
78. Bowling Green (6-5) [0.2736]
79. Louisville (4-7) [0.2728]
80. Kansas St (6-6) [0.2699]
81. Baylor (4-7) [0.2485]
82. Michigan (5-7) [0.2481]
83. Northern Illinois (7-4) [0.2280]
84. UNLV (4-7) [0.2276]
85. Alabama-Birmingham (5-6) [0.2244]
86. Louisiana-Monroe (6-5) [0.2230]
87. Illinois (3-7) [0.2219]
88. Colorado (3-8) [0.2155]
89. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5) [0.2121]
90. Maryland (2-9) [0.2100]
91. San Diego St (4-7) [0.2051]
92. Indiana (4-8) [0.2047]
93. Colorado St (3-8) [0.1993]
94. Hawai`i (5-6) [0.1967]
95. Toledo (5-6) [0.1940]
96. Washington St (1-10) [0.1870]
97. Vanderbilt (2-10) [0.1809]
98. Florida Int'l (3-8) [0.1781]
99. Kent St (5-6) [0.1717]
100. Louisiana Tech (3-8) [0.1702]
101. Tulsa (4-7) [0.1675]
102. Buffalo (4-7) [0.1650]
103. UTEP (3-8) [0.1637]
104. Tulane (3-8) [0.1588]
105. Utah St (3-8) [0.1586]
106. Western Michigan (5-6) [0.1557]
107. Army (5-6) [0.1415]
108. Florida Atlantic (3-7) [0.1384]
109. San Jose St (1-9) [0.1352]
110. New Mexico St (3-8) [0.1303]
111. Memphis (2-9) [0.1249]
112. Rice (2-9) [0.1204]
113. Miami OH (1-11) [0.1152]
114. Akron (2-9) [0.0997]
115. Arkansas St (2-8) [0.0908]
116. North Texas (2-9) [0.0851]
117. New Mexico (1-10) [0.0814]
118. Ball St (1-10) [0.0415]
119. Western Kentucky (0-10) [0.0134]
120. Eastern Michigan (0-11) [0.0131]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.6198
BigEast 0.5836
ACC 0.5578
Pac10 0.5513
Big10 0.4597
Big12 0.4203
MWC 0.3935
FBSInd 0.3620
WAC 0.3119
CUSA 0.2816
MAC 0.2003
SunBelt 0.1851
Non-FBS -0.0831

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