Sunday, October 18, 2009

Rankings through October 17th

Some quick, probably insufficiently thought out comments about the new rankings... It seems fairly typical (in an unscientifically sampled way) to see algorithmic rankings start to make more sense here in the middle part of the season, as there is more information available and, in particular, as the number of undefeateds dwindles. The big end-of-season controversies usually don't start to make themselves clearer until later, because there are so many games left to play with so many different possible outcomes between now and then. Still, if you want, you can definitely start to guess at possible controversies to come, if the game outcomes align certain ways, particularly as more of the remaining undefeateds eventually lose.

Looking at the one-loss teams in the top 10 or top 12, along with two-loss Virginia Tech, one could certainly quibble over ordering; but each team's appearance there seems reasonable enough at this stage. LSU lost to Florida. Oregon's only loss was to Boise State (and helps to make the Broncos look subsequently better). But how does two-loss VT stay ranked so high? It's all about who they lost to, and who those teams lost to. Taken as a 3-team unit, ignoring their games against each other, the GT-VT-Miami triangle have only one loss: VT's loss to Alabama. The other three losses on their combined schedules are the three times one of them beat another. So in the "but my team beat your team" arguments, there are a lot of victories drawing some votes towards these teams, only the one loss to Alabama draining them away, and a lot of votes cycling around the triangle made up of these three teams.

And just in case you think there's an ACC bias here (there isn't), take a look at the conference rankings at the bottom of this post (told you).

2009 Random Walker Rankings (RWFL, p=0.75)
Games through Saturday October 17th:
1. Florida (6-0) [2.7889]
2. Alabama (7-0) [2.5812]
3. Iowa (7-0) [2.3490]
4. Texas (6-0) [1.9274]
5. Cincinnati (6-0) [1.7367]
6. Boise St (6-0) [1.7106]
7. LSU (5-1) [1.6075]
8. Georgia Tech (6-1) [1.5798]
9. Virginia Tech (5-2) [1.4777]
10. TCU (6-0) [1.4662]
11. Miami FL (5-1) [1.4501]
12. Oregon (5-1) [1.3937]
13. Southern Cal (5-1) [1.3706]
14. Arizona (4-2) [0.9424]
15. Houston (5-1) [0.8916]
16. Pittsburgh (6-1) [0.8087]
17. Wisconsin (5-2) [0.7842]
18. South Carolina (5-2) [0.7816]
19. Notre Dame (4-2) [0.7693]
20. Oklahoma St (5-1) [0.7482]
21. Penn State (6-1) [0.7235]
22. West Virginia (5-1) [0.7054]
23. Ohio State (5-2) [0.6803]
24. Georgia (4-3) [0.6789]
25. Washington (3-4) [0.6633]
26. Oregon St (4-2) [0.6617]
27. Kansas (5-1) [0.6232]
28. Utah (5-1) [0.6163]
29. Idaho (6-1) [0.6050]
30. California (4-2) [0.5798]
31. Brigham Young (6-1) [0.5688]
32. Arizona St (4-2) [0.5329]
33. Kentucky (3-3) [0.5328]
34. Auburn (5-2) [0.5222]
35. Arkansas (3-3) [0.5151]
36. Nebraska (4-2) [0.5019]
37. Boston College (5-2) [0.4647]
38. Michigan (5-2) [0.4579]
39. Central Michigan (6-1) [0.4220]
40. South Florida (5-1) [0.3967]
41. Stanford (4-3) [0.3564]
42. Texas Tech (5-2) [0.3335]
43. Troy (4-2) [0.2902]
44. UCLA (3-3) [0.2691]
45. Minnesota (4-3) [0.2675]
46. Mississippi (4-2) [0.2595]
47. Connecticut (4-2) [0.2587]
48. Clemson (3-3) [0.2447]
49. Tennessee (3-3) [0.2421]
50. Oklahoma (3-3) [0.2386]
51. Louisiana-Monroe (4-2) [0.2129]
52. North Carolina (4-2) [0.2005]
53. Michigan St (4-3) [0.1703]
54. Missouri (4-2) [0.1654]
55. Navy (5-2) [0.1533]
56. Rutgers (4-2) [0.1225]
57. Fresno St (3-3) [0.0799]
58. Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2) [0.0288]
59. Iowa St (4-3) [0.0141]
60. Wake Forest (4-3) [0.0076]
61. Colorado St (3-4) [0.0069]
62. Marshall (4-3) [-0.0084]
63. Mississippi St (3-4) [-0.0512]
64. Ohio U. (5-2) [-0.0572]
65. Florida St (2-4) [-0.0702]
66. Colorado (2-4) [-0.1013]
67. Air Force (4-3) [-0.1065]
68. Kansas St (4-3) [-0.1351]
69. Tulsa (4-2) [-0.1379]
70. Northern Illinois (3-3) [-0.1729]
71. East Carolina (4-3) [-0.1880]
72. Nevada (3-3) [-0.1923]
73. Baylor (3-3) [-0.2273]
74. Wyoming (4-3) [-0.2399]
75. Indiana (4-3) [-0.2487]
76. Southern Miss (4-3) [-0.2644]
77. SMU (3-3) [-0.2732]
78. Purdue (2-5) [-0.2974]
79. Central Florida (3-3) [-0.3155]
80. Virginia (3-3) [-0.3174]
81. Toledo (4-3) [-0.3289]
82. North Carolina St (3-4) [-0.3388]
83. Louisville (2-4) [-0.3594]
84. Middle Tennessee St (3-3) [-0.3620]
85. Louisiana Tech (3-3) [-0.3830]
86. Syracuse (2-4) [-0.3991]
87. Bowling Green (3-4) [-0.4010]
88. Texas A&M (3-3) [-0.4198]
89. UTEP (2-4) [-0.4266]
90. Northwestern (4-3) [-0.4289]
91. Duke (3-3) [-0.4764]
92. San Diego St (2-4) [-0.5287]
93. Western Michigan (3-4) [-0.5348]
94. Buffalo (3-4) [-0.5741]
95. Arkansas St (1-4) [-0.5934]
96. UNLV (2-5) [-0.6491]
97. Tulane (2-4) [-0.6502]
98. Washington St (1-5) [-0.6666]
99. San Jose St (1-5) [-0.6679]
100. Temple (4-2) [-0.6850]
101. Maryland (2-5) [-0.7816]
102. Hawai`i (2-4) [-0.8064]
103. Alabama-Birmingham (2-4) [-0.8168]
104. Kent St (3-4) [-0.8451]
105. Florida Atlantic (1-4) [-0.8665]
106. New Mexico St (3-4) [-0.8706]
107. Memphis (2-5) [-0.9384]
108. Illinois (1-5) [-0.9454]
109. Vanderbilt (2-5) [-0.9860]
110. Florida Int'l (1-5) [-1.0750]
111. Army (3-4) [-1.2312]
112. Akron (1-5) [-1.2534]
113. Utah St (1-5) [-1.2864]
114. North Texas (1-5) [-1.5233]
115. FCS teams (XXX-XXX) [-1.6214]
116. Miami OH (0-7) [-1.8190]
117. New Mexico (0-6) [-2.2315]
118. Rice (0-7) [-2.2360]
119. Eastern Michigan (0-6) [-2.7336]
120. Western Kentucky (0-6) [-2.7543]
121. Ball St (0-7) [-3.6397]
Conference Rankings (Average Per Team):
SEC 0.7894
Pac10 0.6103
BigEast 0.4088
Big10 0.3193
Big12 0.3057
ACC 0.2867
FBSInd -0.1029
MWC -0.1219
WAC -0.2012
CUSA -0.4470
SunBelt -0.7381
MAC -0.9710
Non-FBS -1.6214

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